last soccer post for a bit, I swear

This week's edition of the Pickakke is sponsored by the Special One:

"Be Champions"

Speaking of champions, lets do a quick review of last week's selections:

Man U 4 - 0 AC Milan (picked 2-1): HIT on O/U, HIT on Result

Madrid 1 - 1 Lyon (picked 2-1): MISSED on O/U, HIT on Result

Arsenal 5 - 0 Porto (picked 3-1): HIT on O/U, HIT on Result

Fiorentina 3 - 2 Bayern (picked 2-0): MISSED on O/U, HIT on Result

For those of you keeping score at home, that's a 75% rate of success. Very, very nice predicting.

But we can't afford to live in the past, resting upon our laurels (ahem Madrid ahem). Onward to this week's tasty treats:

Tuesday, 16 March 3:45 EDT

Chelsea FC (-1) vs. Internazionale (1-2 after 1st leg): The Special One returns to Stamford Bridge, where he amassed an impressive record as manager of Chelsea. Will his 2-1 lead be enough to see Inter through? Chelsea have had strong form at home in Europe and in the Prem, while Inter have been less than convincing away from the San Siro. Does it all add up to Chelsea victory, then? I am not so certain. Maybe its the special scarf, or just his way with words, but somehow I am believing in the Special One this time around in his former playpen. I see Chelsea getting an early goal, getting too comfortable sitting on their away goal advancement, and getting "puto cracked" by an Inter-man at the death.

Prediction: Chelsea 1 - 1 Inter [Inter advance on aggregate 2-3]

Sevilla FC (-1) vs. CSKA Moscow (1-1 after 1st leg): Sevilla have to be considered favorites to advance after their gutsy performance in cold Mother Russia to pull out the 1-1 draw. They have also been in-form at the Sanchez-Pizjuan as of late, going undefeated in their last 5 matches with a GD of +7. I really see no way for Moscow to outduel the nerviosos at home, and even if they manage an unlikely away goal, I see Sevilla countering comfortably.

Prediction: Sevilla 2 - 0 Moscow [Sevilla advance on aggregate 3-1]

Wednesday, 17 March 3:45 EDT

FC Barcelona (-1.5) vs. VfB Stuttgart (1-1 after 1st leg): Waawee whoa whoa. After Barcelona's impressive thrashing of Valencia yesterday, they are installed in this match as MEGAFAVORITES. The over/under for this match is set at 3, instead of the customary 2.5 AND Barca is pegged as a winner by more than a goal. If you needed any more proof of how no one gives Stuttgart a snowball's chance in hell at the Camp Nou, if you bet 100 dollars on them winning, you could be 1100 dollars richer at the end of the match. A more than 10x return on investment! Not too shabby. I am not advocating making that investment, though. Messi was sublime yesterday, and I fully expect he and his Barca Boys to work over Stuttgart in this match as well. I can see them getting a lucky goal somewhere in there, so I will through Stuttgart a bone with this one:

Prediction: Barca 3 - 1 Stuttgart [Barca advance on aggregate 4-2]

FC Girondins de Bordeaux (-1) vs. Olympiacos CFP (1-0 after 1st leg): Hmm, because I think so highly of the ol' Geronimos, I will keep this one short and sweet. Olympiacos have not scored an away goal in Europe this year. Bordeaux are CLASS. As such:

Prediction: Bordeaux 1 - 0 Olympiacos [Bordeaux advance on aggregate 2-0]

---

Just a friendly Daylight SAVING Time reminder: because we set our clocks ahead before our friends in Europe, this week's matches are at quarter to FOUR, not three as per usual. Didn't have enough DST chatter today so I figured I would throw that one in.

And remember, Be Champions!

wednesday sadness, or pjanic (75') at the disco

I know I am making a horrible habit of posting these predictions AFTER the events take place, but I got out of work late and could only post this after being enthralled by the match:

From earlier today:

... and now for Wednesday's Picks:

Wednesday, 10 March 2:45 EST

Manchester United vs. AC Milan (3-2 After 1st Leg): The Beckham makes his glorious return to the Theater of Dreams in this 2nd leg match up between European greats. Unfortunately for Becks and his temporary teammates, this trip away from Italy holds more value as a tourist getaway to scenic (?) Northwest England than as a sporting endeavor. Their not so fresh home showing, where they gave up three (3) away goals, all but assures that the damned United will go through to the next round. The Mancunians have been stingy at home in European play, and with Milan desperately needing to score, I could see the Rossoneri being dangerously exposed at the back and prone to counterattacks. I don't think Milan will be shut out, but I don't think they have what it takes to overcome tremendous hurdle they have set up for themselves.

Prediction: Man U 2 -1 Milan [Man U Advance on Aggregate 5-3]

Real Madrid CF vs. Olympique Lyonnais (0-1 After 1st Leg): As a desperate, anxious Madridista, I am going to stray from my typical dispassionate analysis for a moment. Enjoy my sadness... Madrid need to get a firm grasp of the two ways that this game can go: they can either play very conservatively, go for a straightforward 2-0 result that would get them through OR they could go balls-to-the-wall and try to score as many goals as possible, defense be damned. Given that they allow one goal on average at home in Europe, going for the first result seems Quixotic (how apropos for a Spanish Squadroon!). As they demonstrated with their play in the latter half of the Sevilla game this weekend, when they are going all out on offense, the Blancos' play can be quite sublime. I think they need to channel that spirit and style for the entire 90 minutes, with the Bernabeu faithful cheering them on, urging them forward in all-out attack. Anything short of that effort will lead to a 6th straight failure in the Round of 16. Count it. In that spirit, I have cooked up two predictions: one likely and one ideal. The likely one assumes a conservative approach from Pellegrini, where he starts an all-Diarra central midfield. The ideal is one where there is maybe one holding midfielder , 4 at the back, and the rest some combination of strikers and attacking midfielders (Ronaldo, Kaka, Guti, Van Der Vaart, et al.).

Likely Scenario Prediction: Madrid 2 - 1 Lyon [Lyon Advance on Away Goals 2-2]

Ideal Scenario Prediction: Madrid 4 - 2 Lyon [Madrid Advance on Aggregate 4-3]

Enjoy the matches, folks!

and HALA MADRID!

-----

Back to the present and my immediate post-match thoughts. The following paragraph will likely take the form of a long stream of consciousness that makes little to no sense for the non-soccer fans out there.

Well, for starters I am pretty numb. This one hurts more than Arsenal in 2006, more than the embarrassment to Liverpool last year, more than the Bayern shaming in 2007. Madrid played great in the first half and should have had this one in the bag. As per my comments earlier today, though, I KNEW we were going to give up a goal. It was bound to happen. Why Pellegrini even STARTED Granero I can't understand. We were always going to need firepower, we were always going to be chasing goals. One central/holding mid in the form of Lass was going to be enough. But no, we get Granero (who was shit over the two legs of the tie), and his mistakes. Not to say that he should get all of the blame or even the majority of it. There was enough to go around. Kaka, for all of his occasional brilliance, was also reduced to flopping around at times looking for calls. Ramos was prone to giving up the ball at times, something that you just can't get away with doing as a RB who goes charging up the flank. Ronaldo showed the usual effort, although we could have seen better from his free kicks than to put one super wide and one right into the wall. Hmm, who else. Oh yes, there is Higuain. Pepita had a howler of a miss in the first half, hitting the post on a wide open net. He was absent for the rest of the game.

But what does this mean in the long term? Well obviously all attention now turns to the League, which is really all about keeping pace and beating Barca in the home leg of the Clasico. Does the team continue the domestic form that has helped them catch up to the Catalans? Its hard to say. I could easily see them losing all fight, as half the team (Kaka, Benzema, Ronaldo, Alonso, Albiol, Arbeloa, Granero) were brought on for the express purpose of winning the CL, or at least GETTING US PAST THE ROUND OF 16, FUCK (!). When you have failed epically at the sole thing you were hired to do, I can't help but feel that will negatively impact your future performances. But then again I am not a professional athlete playing at the highest levels. Maybe they will be so angered by this failure that they will romp on the comparatively puny competition in La Liga and get Number 32. Who's to say?

What I do know is that in this instance, 10 >> 32. At least for tonight, that math is ringing true in the minds of Madridistas everywhere.

yes, more soccer, but soon variety

I realize that many of my posts as of late have been very soccer-related. If that has bothered you, dear reader, I am very sorry. Also, shut up! I will write about what I feel like writing about. Assurances that I will have some variety of topics soon, though, so don't fret too much.

That being said, here is my latest soccer work: a prediction I concocted earlier in the day. Marvel at its accuracy!

Ed. note: I composed this prediction at around 2:25 PM today, long before the start of the matches...

A Fine Tuesday Tradition: The Champions League Pickkake.

Last Week (actually two weeks ago) Retrospective:

Stuttgart 1 - 1 Barcelona (picked 1-3): MISSED on O/U, MISSED on Result

Olympiacos 0 - 1 Bordeaux (picked 1-2): MISSED on O/U, HIT on Result

CSKA Moscow 1 - 1 Sevilla (picked 1-1): HIT on O/U, HIT on Result

Inter 2 - 1 Chelsea (picked 0-1): MISSED on O/U, MISSED on Result

Not too bad, but not great either. Still hovering around mediocrity, but got a direct hit with the Moscow/Sevilla clash. Very nice. On to this week's action...

Tuesday, 9 March 2:45 EST

Arsenal vs. FC Porto (1-2 After 1st Leg): As much as I enjoy Porto for their various name-related foibles (playing in the Stadium of the Dragon and having a man by the name of Hulk), I can't help but see The Arsenal going through to the next round. While they are probably still reeling from that awful leg break suffered by the promising young Ramsey, Arsenal should play tough at the Emirates and use that away goal they have stashed away to their advantage. Porto travel well in Europe, though, so it will be no easy task for the Gunners as they try to advance. I see this one going to extra time to find a winner.

Prediction: Arsenal 2 -1 Porto (AET 3-1) [Arsenal Advance on Aggregate 4-3]

AC Fiorentina vs. FC Bayern Munich (1-2 After 1st Leg): Man, if the first leg wasn't an example of some of the worst Champions League refereeing since, oh, last spring... The best thing that Fiorentina may have going for them in this match (besides their one away goal) is the fact that Bovs Bovsen will not be officiating this match. He and his suspect decisions probably cost them the 1st leg, but Bayern will not be so lucky this time around. I see Fiorentina playing with fire in their bellies in this match, in an effort to avenge the wrongs they suffered at the hands of the Boverson. Will fire and desire be enough, though? I fear that they may not be able to overcome the one goal advantage that Bayern took away from the first leg and will (unjustly) fall out of Champions League competition in this round.

Prediction: Fiorentina 1 - 1 Bayern [Bayern Advance on Aggregate 2-3]

... ack ran out of time (busy day, Part 2 of this Pickkake will feature tomorrow)

100th post and a pickkake

This is the 100th post to the blog. Yay!

It is also a little late, considering some of my predictions have already (sadly) busted out. But tomorrow is another day!

Last week retrospective:

So with the year layoff since my last bit of soccer prognosticating, I showed off my rust with some rather dodgy results last week. I hope to improve today, but here is a look at what I hit on and what I missed from Matchdays 1/2.

AC Milan 2 - 3 Man U (picked 1-1): MISSED on O/U, MISSED on Result

Lyon 1 - 0 Real Madrid (picked 0-1): HIT on O/U, MISSED on Result

Porto 2 - 1 Arsenal (picked 1-1): MISSED on O/U, MISSED on Result

Bayern Munich 2 - 1 Fiorentina (picked 2-0): MISSED on O/U, HIT on Result

For those keeping score at home, thats a robust .250 batting average. Decent for baseball, below average for a sports book. I will try harder this week to get the results on the button. To the predicterfaaning:

Tuesday, 23 February 2:45 EST

VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Barcelona (-1) [O/U 2.5 -150 +115] - The defending European and World Club Champions (like that Ahmad? I'm giving them their DUE) begin their title defense in earnest today when they take on the upstart Stuttgart. Barca still stands astride La Liga, despite their bedshitting against Atletico and Real's efforts to play catch-up. Les Cules are justifiably worried about their team's injury woes, with a number of starters banged up as of late. Will these injuries come to haunt the Blaugrana when they go on their south German adventure? I say no, as Stuttgart have been atrocious in the back in European play, giving up 1.67 goals on average at home. While Barca have not lit the world on fire away from the Camp in Europe, I think they are due for a bit of their old form this afternoon, and will come away with a valuable away win:

Prediction: Stuttgart 1 - 3 Barcelona UPDATE: MISSED on O/U, MISSED on Result

Olympiacos CFP vs. FC Girondins de Bordeaux [O/U 2.5 -130 even] - Somehow, someway, some greasy Greek team and two French teams end up qualifying for Round of 16 play. That fact, in and of itself, is quite annoying given the quality of these leagues compared to other European powerhouses. When teams like this play EACH OTHER, that really steams my clams. Somehow seven-times champs AC Milan will not feature in the Quarterfinals, whereas one of these teams will have a spot. Blegh. Anyways, as far as predictions go, I think this matchup is pretty clear. Olympiacos made it out of their group with a rather sterling 3-1-2 record and -1 GD. They have yet to lose at home in European play, though, so I must give them credit where it is due. Bordeaux have a had a great season thusfar, in both Europe and at home, so I will give them the edge in this affair:

Prediction: Olympiacos 1 - 2 Bordeaux UPDATE: MISSED on O/U, HIT on Result

Wednesday, 24 February 12:30 and 2:45 EST

CSKA Moscow vs. Sevilla FC [O/U 2.5 +120 -155] - The Rojiblancos head out to cold Mother Russia to take on Professional Football Club Central Sports Club of Army Moscow (their actual name!) in this tie that lacks the flavor of some of the other matches in store this week. While the Sevillistas are normally quite strong on the road in Europe (2.33 GF average thusfar), I can see the chilly temperatures (projected high of 36) in Moscow getting to them tomorrow night. While I don't think they will be completely frozen out of the net tomorrow night, I don't see a goalfest happening either. CSKA seems to play much better at home, and I think they will be able to escape this tie with a draw:

Prediction: Moscow 1 - 1 Sevilla

Inter Milan vs. Chelsea FC [O/U 2.5 +135 -175] - Oh ho ho! Soccer writers the world over have had this match circled on their calendars since the day of the draw. The subplots in this tie are legion: Special One versus his old club, negative football versus negative football, perennial Champions League failures versus even more heartbreaking failures. What this match will lack in goals, I think it will more than make up for in backstory and drama. What kind of antics or mind games will the Special One cook up for this encounter? How will Chelsea players, who for the most part liked the Mourinho regime, handle playing against their old gaffer? No one is quite sure how any of this will shake out, but I am willing to say that a lot of the excitement of this matchup will happen before the starting whistle and after the final one. Inter has played rather negative football as of late, and we have all see what Chelsea's tactics can look like away from home in European play (reference Ahmad's frustration with them in last year's email chain.) Chelsea has yet to be shutout in Europe, but I think they will be frustrated in tomorrow night's encounter:

Prediction: Inter 1 - 0 Chelsea

Lots of focus on soccer. So sue me.

you betta ask somebodayyyyyy

Sven Kramer: if you don't know who he is...

... YOU BETTA ASK SOMEBODAYYYY

... just not Sven, of course.

MAKOUN (47') ME SICK

Folks, I would like to take a moment to introduce you to a serious affliction that has once again reared its ugly head and affected the lives of so many with its terrible symptoms.

RMISS affects this writer and many others around the world. It is a crippling disease that can lead to chest pains, nausea, hyperventilation, compulsive shouting, and various other wellness-reducing symptoms. RMISS is a highly seasonal illness, it grows in frequency in mid-February, reaching a peak in early-March, and typically runs its course no later than early April.

Its a devastating, horrible condition, and there is no known cure.

I have RMISS. I have struggled with it for 5 years, and only now am I coming to grips with this fact.

Yesterday, I had my first Real Madrid Induced Stress Syndrome outbreak of the year. This man was the catalyst:

Makoun (left) scored an absolute wonderstrike in the 47th minute for the winning goal.

Madrid's chances in the Round of 16 took a substantial hit when they were unable to net an away goal at Lyon yesterday. They fell 1-0, leaving them in the sticky situation whereby they must score two goals at home and surrender none to win.

This disappointment, sadly, was not quite unexpected. Despite paying over $200 million in transfer fees for a return to the Galacticos method of team building, they were unable to overcome the demons of Champions League past. Madrid have failed to advance past the Round of 16 since 2004, during Galacticos I. Whether in league-winning form, as was the case in 2007 and 2008, or runner-up form, they have not been able to translate domestic strength into European power. They seem to shrivel in the limelight, causing me and other Madridistas great angst in the form of RMISS.

This particular game was disconcerting beyond its ultimate result, though. While the 1-0 result presents a hurdle to overcome in the home leg, the way that the team earned this loss was far more troubling. Kaka, Ronaldo, and Alonso - galacticos and former Champions League winners in the past - seemed to lack any sort of coherent form of attack. Alonso seemed frustrated that he could not provide the service from the defensive third to the middle third of the field while alos looking shaky in regulaing the Lyon attack. Kaka was VISIBLY frustrated with the service he was getting from the deep midfield, shouting for the ball and seeming frustrated for the majority of the game. Ronaldo looked lost at times: while he was probably giving some of his hardest effort of the season, he crippled the Madrid attack at times by attempting ball tricks that were completely inappropriate in the given situation.

But why were these otherwise clutch CL performers made to look stunningly average in yesterday's game? I think there are a few reasons. Firstly, Lyon seemed DETERMINED to not surrender an away goal. That airtight defense was a critical part of their gameplan, for they knew just like everyone watching that surrundering such a goal would deal an almost deadly blow to their chances of advancing past the Whites. Another reason for the lackluster performance could have also come from the fact that the team is still gelling togther, and being tested by a new form of play from the French side constipated their normal game flow. My most worrying reason, though, is that they collectively (6 new acquisitions started, 2 subbed, 4 total Galacticos) felt almost unbearable pressure to perform in this one game. They all know that they were brought in to replace players who could not get it done in the Champions League. To make a baseball reference, with all of these high-priced, high-profile acquisitions, Madrid started half a team of A-Rods. Until this season, A-Rod was known as a regular season performer, a post-season chump. The CL is much like the European soccer equivalent of the post season. They all individually feel a great amount of pressure, and because the nature of the game this effect can compound itself all over the field. Doing too much, forcing passes, forgetting team play all can happen when players feel that they themselves must make the difference to win the game.

Is this most recent disappointment a ringing repudiation of the Galacticos policy? Not necessarily. If Madrid can score 2 and pitch a shutout at home, which is entirely possible, this loss will have merely been a speed bump on the road to the Round of 8. Should they play well and somehow manage to not make it through, one could reasonably say that they need one more season to gel to make a good run. It will be a whole different story, though, if this assembled group cannot in several seasons time give Madrid fans a cure for RMISS. The fan base cannot stomach many more season of its pain.

THE CHAMPIONS

We are in the 3rd week of February, and we all know what that means...

... the glorious return of the CHAMPIONS LEAGUE ROUND OF 16.  Cue song.  Ah, thats the stuff.  And they say that February is the black hole of sports.  Pshaw!

Just like last year I am offering up some BOLD and BOMBASTIC predictions, which are up for everyone's scrutiny and/or potential lols.  This week we are treated to some truly grand matchups, with yet another meeting of AC Milan and Man U (where maybe we can see a repeat of something like this) and Real visiting Lyon, a team they have historically struggled with in Champions League play.  But enough with prologue and on to the picking!

Tuesday, 16 February 2:45 EST:

AC Milan vs. Manchester United [O/U 2.5 +130 -165] - In a battle of teams which were relieved of their top stars by Real over the summer, we have a rematch of what was an epic semifinal tie back in 2007.  In that last encounter, Milan put a finger in the eye of those who would claim the Premiership to have the best brand of football in Europe by thoroughly decimating Man U 5-1 on aggregate.  Milan won their home leg 3-0 back then, but don't look for them to repeat the feat this time around.  They did well in qualifying out of their tough group (beating and drawing eventual group winners Real) and are currently sitting in 3rd in Serie A.  While Man U have lost some of last season's luster, currently second to Chelsea in the Premiership and not exactly coming out smelling like roses from their easy as pie qualifying group.  I think this will be a chippy, fairly even affair, and I feel comfortable with the under in this one:

Prediction: AC Milan 1 - 1 Man U 

Olympique Lyonnais vs. Real Madrid (-.5) [O/U 2.5 even -130] - Lyon have dominated Real in the recent past in Champions League play - they were paired in the group stage in 2005/06 and 2006/07, where Lyon amassed an 8-3 aggregate score over 2 years.  Real has undergone quite a bit of a transformation since then, they aren't even the same side that was dominated by Liverpool in the Round of 16 last year.  They have started to hit their stride in La Liga, winning 4 games on the trot, and progressed with top billing out of their tricky qualifying group.  Aside from their shaky record against Lyon, history is also not on Real's side.  Progressing past the Round of 16 has proved to be mission impossible for Real, having failed to do so since 2004.  Lyon will prove to be a formidable foe in this first leg, but I feel that they will be overmatched in this encounter:

Prediction: Lyon 0 - 1 Real Madrid 

Wednesday, 17 February 2:45 EST:

FC Bayern Munich (-1) vs. AC Fiorentina [O/U 2.5 -130 even] - Bayern appear to be favorites in what should actually be a pretty tasty matchup on Wednesday.  Despite being runners-up in their group, Bayern will likely play strong at home, where they have amassed an 8-4-0 record with an average of 2.08 goals per game.  Fiorentina put together a rather impressive qualifying campaign, where they had a +9 goal differential and and a 5-0-1 record in a group that included quality sides Lyon and Liverpool.  Fiorentina's domestic record has been less than stellar; they currently sit in 11th position, where they are just as close to Serie B as they are to a Europa League place.  So the question for the Gigliati is, which team will show this week under the bright lights of European competition?  I think the match will be closely fought, but I see Munich coming out on top with a comfortable lead going into the second leg:

Prediction: Bayern 2 - 0 Fiorentina

FC Porto vs. Arsenal [O/U 2.5 +125 -160] - The Gunners head into this encounter as slight favorites, which is fitting given their rather indifferent European campaign to this point.  They qualified with top billing in their group, a dubious achievement given that the group included the likes of Standard Liege and AZ Alkmaar.  Their away record in the group stage also gives me pause, as they have conceded as many goals as they have scored on the road (4).  They are clearly more comfortable at the Emirates, so this away match could prove difficult for them.  Two-time European Champions Porto should give Arsenal all they can handle.  While they currently sit at 3rd in Portugal, they have had a good run of form in Europe of late, giving eventual finalists Man U a run for their money last year and managing a +5 goal difference in the group stage this year.  I see them playing this one tight at the Dragao, leaving all to play for in the second leg:

Prediction: FC Porto 1 - 0 Arsenal

Looking forward to the start of the best tournament held in February/March/April in the WORLD (sorry college bball fans).

Also, how exciting is it that the final will be held on a SATURDAY on NETWORK TV? Watch out Super Bowl, the Champions League is ready to zap ya!!!