tuesday museday revival

Ha, ha ha! Not quite. Circumstances largely beyond my control have prevented me from blogging in depth (or at all, ha) as of late. This will change in the coming days, to be sure. For now, I think I will do some (lazy) linking:

- FIFA World Cup Matchball, explained!


- Hilarious Wonkette post I can relate to, featuring this site:

- 1st song + 2nd song = where my head is at these days:
the first:


the second:


- Until yesterday, I had no idea who Justin Beiber was. Literally zero clue. I think I like that I am moving well past the point of knowing about each little flash in the pan pop sensation. I will now resume smoking my pipe in my old man attire.

- Thinking about deactivating from the Facebook machine. The "privacy" settings and layout are getting rather bothersome.

- That is all for now.

back, with soccer...

Ah, the pageantry of the Semifinals of the UEFA Champions League. With only two games to follow, gone is the need to dual-monitor your matches, watch games on broadcasting delay, and (for me at least) read many, many lines before figuring out how to predict a match. Its truly the best time of the year.

But enough of my waxing poetic, on to the predicting!

Tuesday, 20 April 2:45 EDT

Internazionale Milan v. FC Barcelona [O/U 2.5 even -130] - The Special One gets a second crack at Barcelona in this year's Champions League as Inter welcome Barcelona to the San Siro Tuesday. During the group stage, Inter drew 0-0 at home despite being dominated statistically by Barca. Will it happen again? I am not so sure this time around, as these teams are not the same ones that met in the fall. Noticeably absent from the Blaugrana is Andres "lo puto crack" Iniesta, whose play in the midfield is instrumental to an efficient Barcelona side. Guardiola has been experimenting with different looks to make up for his absence, most notably bringing up Maxwell and Dani Alves into more midfield roles in the past couple of games, to mixed effect. Xavi has picked up the slack as well, as my beloved Real side can attest. And finally, how can we forget about this guy:

I really don't know what he is looking at so intently, but its kind of frightening. Maicon, the Special One, and the rest of Inter would be wise to keep their eyes on the little magician as he is easily the most dangerous player in the multiverse right now. (Even Thong Boy agrees, kind of!) Honestly, I would be shocked if Mourinho hasn't prepared his side to the utmost to deal with the Messi Problem, so his impact on the game may be somewhat muted. The real question for me is how much will Mourinho push his men to go for the aggressive strategy of attaining a home goal or play the conservative counterattack to contain Barca's offense. I see the match falling somewhere in-between:

Prediction: Inter 1-1 Barcelona

Wednesday, 21 April 2:45 EDT

FC Bayern Munich (-.5) v. Olympique Lyonnais [O/U 2.5 -110 -120] - Yes, yes we have all heard it before. Germany v. France, World War overtones, et cetera et cetera. Really though, perhaps the best and most notable thing about this match is that it will probably be recreated in Lego form by some ingenious (insane?) Germans:

If you haven't seen that yet, you really, really have to watch. The Robben moneyshot is incredible. Anyways, I think this should be a rather compelling tie. I have hated on both of these teams in the past, predicting the downfall of Bayern at various stages and underestimating Lyon's ability to get by Bordeaux. As John has pointed out to me (in a bit of pro-German bias I think? What propaganda has Eisbar been feeding you?), Bayern score with great aplomb. The facts actually bare this out; Bayern have a fat +24 GD in games at home in the Bundesliga. They are also the 4th highest scoring team this year's CL. Lyon have been nothing if not plucky in defense, though. Through the competition, they have been able to frustrate the competent offenses of Madrid and Bordeaux. How will strength play against strength at the Fussball Arena Munchen? I will look for Bayern to come away with the win in a close and exciting match:

Prediction: Bayern 2-1 Lyon

And what would be a matchday featuring Inter be without a Special guest appearance?

"Shut up, Messi!"

oh, and its a soccer thing

Alright, I managed to go one post without talking about soccer in some form or fashion, but I just HAD to comment on this article I came across in the New Republic today.

'Galacticos' In Hell - Aleksandar Hemon

Here is a picture of the guy, just to give you a mental image of the man I will proceed to rant against:

Oh Hi, I am Alek. I am supposes to know about the soccer. Check out my glasses.

So in case you are backtracking, the The New Republic (double the's intentional) is, in fact, having a guy (that guy, up there) cover soccer from here to and through the World Cup. Soccer coverage? From a news and politics magazine? You've got me. But really, why not? More soccer coverage in America can't be a bad thing, right?

As it turns out, the answer is plainly 'yes.' Yes, it can be a bad thing to have more coverage of soccer if that coverage is crazy terrible. Like this guy's was. There are a LOT of people in this country (and outside of it, for that matter) who could do a vastly better job covering the beautiful game for the American audience. Why is this guy so terrible? Where to begin...

... I guess the biggest thing for me was the fact that he really doesn't seem to have all that deep on an understanding of the game. In the paragraph where he mentions Liverpool's financial trouble, he initially called world-renown striker Fernando Torres "Francisco Torres." (The mistake was edited later in the day.) I don't mean to be a soccer snob, but anyone actually following the game (instead of just looking up facts to write an article) would NOT make that mistake. I'm sorry, a simple mistake like that subverts any claim to be knowledgeable about anything regarding the game in Europe.

But on to the substance of the argument. I guess his main idea is that Real are pretty foolish in their attempt to win European glory through the second go-round of the galacticos policy. In that main respect, he may be right. This commentary is far (and I mean fucking Pluto-distant) from insightful and hardly worth a column in the The New Republic. About a million bloggers, commentators, soccer personalities, et al. have made this exact same observation. It doesn't take a soccer genius to note "hey, maybe buying great players isn't the best policy for winning the CL." Barcelona proved just that last year. And everyone noticed. Last year. Way to be on top of your game, guy! A mere 10 months late to that party!

But this common line of attack against the galacticos policy is not without its faults as well. Many seem to forget that under the first Perez regime, Madrid were quite successful, winning two Champions League crowns (2000 and 2002) and two Ligas (2001 and 2003). They only stopped succeeding when Perez sacked manager Vicente del Bosque, the current gaffer of the Spanish national team. Back in those halcyon days under del Bosque, Madrid's policy of signing the greatest players was hailed as masterstroke, and they were truly a delight to watch. While the current generation of superstars may not play together as well (bearing in mind they have only been at it for less than a season), no one can rightly claim that they are doomed to fail in future efforts. This is a team built for the future (many of the stars are under the age of 28), not for immediate results on the field.

Hemon also seems to lack an understanding of relative player quality. He lists Arbeloa and Garay as cut-rate defenders, while both of them have been capped for their respective national sides - Arbeloa generally figuring as a starter or substitute as of late. He claims that Guti is a "divinity among Madridistas for his fanatical club loyalty and meticulous hair care"... I really don't even know where to begin with that one. The general consensus among Madrid fans is that Guti is a player to be tolerated more then celebrated at this point, as he has both tremendous upside (sublime passes) and disastrous downside (disappears from games, bad attitude). "Fanatical club loyalty" in reference to Guti is probably the richest statement in this entire piece, which is otherwise riddled with bold statements; Guti has on many occasions expressed his desire to leave the club or shared his displeasure with his current amount of playing time. I think Hemon makes the dangerous error of conflating time of service with club (no one would deny that Guti has been with Real for ages) with loyalty to said club. Guti is no Raul, for example.

In the final analysis, this guy is pretty far off base when it comes to backing up his very bland "analysis." The fact that TNR picked this guy to give its American readers in-depth soccer coverage through the Mundial is quite disappointing.

/endrant

//really, what is up with those glasses?

hey, a non soccer thing!

Yes! Finally a non-soccer related thing, for Once! All it took was a monumental piece of legislation to pass the do-nothing Congress, which finally did something.

America, welcome to the civilized world! Yes, you now (or at least close to almost) provide some sensible way for (most?) of your citizens to access affordable healthcare. Suck it second/third world!

But lets not get ahead of ourselves, this bill is certainly a camel. And no, not this colorful character:

But rather a camel in the sense that it was designed by committee, literally made of compromises that in aggregate make something that none of the people who had a hand in the creation are 100% happy with. I mean look at a camel, seriously, those things are bizarre.

Anyways, its a step in the right direction, even if its far from perfect. Other outlets could surely to a much better job of getting into the wonkery of the matter, so I will leave that out of this post. What I will include is my conversation tonight with someone who was displeased with the reform, and how her view is illustrative of how the Dems and President Obama need to continue to sell this here camel as the November elections grow closer:

D*: well, then that doesn't upset me. lol. it's not fair, i know. hell, i have two health insurance and until about 3 months ago, i had three. i shouldn't have 3 when others have none, but i shouldn't have to pay for yours

9:32 PM me: well, the merits of the healthcare part of the reconcilliation thing yesterday aside

the part that was SAFRA

was laudable

9:33 PM I will not debate the hcr part with you, but I do suggest you read carefully up on what it does and does not do

9:34 PM I don't suspect you will be paying much more in taxes

for whatever was done

unless you have some windfalls

that I am not aware of

D*: it's not so much about cost to me as it is principle. it's not the govt's responsibility to take care of people.

9:35 PM me: I understand and respect your view

and to a large extent agree

but "take care of people" is a pretty broad umbrella phrase

9:37 PM gotta take care of people, by you know, fighting wars against enemies

who would like to do harm to us

and take care of people by making sure companies don't sell shit products that could kill or hurt lots of people

9:38 PM but I think I understand what you are talking about

9:40 PM D*: im not very eloquent when i try to say what i mean. and yes i agree with you. someone has to check things. but in my head, we're giving things away. lots and lots and lots of just "giving" away. are the ins co corrupt? probably. because of bureaucracy, are the costs inflated? probably. i dont know the right answer, but i dont think this is it

9:42 PM me: it may very well not be the best answer

but its an answer

an answer that has not come in literally 90 years

D*: is a shitty answer better than none?

9:43 PM me: if you before could not afford insurance

and now can

or

because you were born with an expensive to treat condition

are now allowed to get insurance

I would imagine it is

9:44 PM as a relatively healthy person

who makes good decisions

with health

I can't say that it really does a lot for me

D*: dont even start me on 90 years ago. i dont have enough time tonight. lol i see your point in both examples. however, my fear is that this is going to become a runaway program similar to what happened almost 80 years ago. i honestly believe it's worse for you, brendan

9:45 PM me: but for someone who has a really sick kid and now insurance companies can't reject their child because they are too expensive to treat

well

yes

9:46 PM I understand if you don't have time to go into it now, and really I don't want to try to convince you of anything

but I do suggest you read about what was passed, just to make sure

that you are sure

that things are being given away

9:48 PM D*: i meant i don't have time to discuss 90 years of healthcare fiascos. but, i must retire anyway, but i will promise to review the bill and what it includes. i won't lie. i rely on glenn beck for a lot. i'm just highly skeptical. i do suppose i'm in a happy hc bubble and i dont see the outside. but i dont like change. i dont like govt telling me what to do or spending my money on things that arent about me. but i will mull this over. and we will discuss soon.

9:49 PM me: definitely

and

please

whatever you do

and whatever you believe

9:50 PM please find someone else to get info from other than glenn beck

Okay, you might be thinking that the Glenn Beck thing makes the whole conversation a moot point. I would caution that my friend is not a crazy wingnut in any sense. My friend represents a few commonly held views, namely that there are huge giveaways in this bill and that the ability to get affordable insurance may not be all that essential.

The challenge for Dems will be to highlight the immediate and long term benefits of the bill, while also providing evidence that those above points are the wrong way to think about HCR.

Also, SAFRA. Yay!

last soccer post for a bit, I swear

This week's edition of the Pickakke is sponsored by the Special One:

"Be Champions"

Speaking of champions, lets do a quick review of last week's selections:

Man U 4 - 0 AC Milan (picked 2-1): HIT on O/U, HIT on Result

Madrid 1 - 1 Lyon (picked 2-1): MISSED on O/U, HIT on Result

Arsenal 5 - 0 Porto (picked 3-1): HIT on O/U, HIT on Result

Fiorentina 3 - 2 Bayern (picked 2-0): MISSED on O/U, HIT on Result

For those of you keeping score at home, that's a 75% rate of success. Very, very nice predicting.

But we can't afford to live in the past, resting upon our laurels (ahem Madrid ahem). Onward to this week's tasty treats:

Tuesday, 16 March 3:45 EDT

Chelsea FC (-1) vs. Internazionale (1-2 after 1st leg): The Special One returns to Stamford Bridge, where he amassed an impressive record as manager of Chelsea. Will his 2-1 lead be enough to see Inter through? Chelsea have had strong form at home in Europe and in the Prem, while Inter have been less than convincing away from the San Siro. Does it all add up to Chelsea victory, then? I am not so certain. Maybe its the special scarf, or just his way with words, but somehow I am believing in the Special One this time around in his former playpen. I see Chelsea getting an early goal, getting too comfortable sitting on their away goal advancement, and getting "puto cracked" by an Inter-man at the death.

Prediction: Chelsea 1 - 1 Inter [Inter advance on aggregate 2-3]

Sevilla FC (-1) vs. CSKA Moscow (1-1 after 1st leg): Sevilla have to be considered favorites to advance after their gutsy performance in cold Mother Russia to pull out the 1-1 draw. They have also been in-form at the Sanchez-Pizjuan as of late, going undefeated in their last 5 matches with a GD of +7. I really see no way for Moscow to outduel the nerviosos at home, and even if they manage an unlikely away goal, I see Sevilla countering comfortably.

Prediction: Sevilla 2 - 0 Moscow [Sevilla advance on aggregate 3-1]

Wednesday, 17 March 3:45 EDT

FC Barcelona (-1.5) vs. VfB Stuttgart (1-1 after 1st leg): Waawee whoa whoa. After Barcelona's impressive thrashing of Valencia yesterday, they are installed in this match as MEGAFAVORITES. The over/under for this match is set at 3, instead of the customary 2.5 AND Barca is pegged as a winner by more than a goal. If you needed any more proof of how no one gives Stuttgart a snowball's chance in hell at the Camp Nou, if you bet 100 dollars on them winning, you could be 1100 dollars richer at the end of the match. A more than 10x return on investment! Not too shabby. I am not advocating making that investment, though. Messi was sublime yesterday, and I fully expect he and his Barca Boys to work over Stuttgart in this match as well. I can see them getting a lucky goal somewhere in there, so I will through Stuttgart a bone with this one:

Prediction: Barca 3 - 1 Stuttgart [Barca advance on aggregate 4-2]

FC Girondins de Bordeaux (-1) vs. Olympiacos CFP (1-0 after 1st leg): Hmm, because I think so highly of the ol' Geronimos, I will keep this one short and sweet. Olympiacos have not scored an away goal in Europe this year. Bordeaux are CLASS. As such:

Prediction: Bordeaux 1 - 0 Olympiacos [Bordeaux advance on aggregate 2-0]

---

Just a friendly Daylight SAVING Time reminder: because we set our clocks ahead before our friends in Europe, this week's matches are at quarter to FOUR, not three as per usual. Didn't have enough DST chatter today so I figured I would throw that one in.

And remember, Be Champions!

wednesday sadness, or pjanic (75') at the disco

I know I am making a horrible habit of posting these predictions AFTER the events take place, but I got out of work late and could only post this after being enthralled by the match:

From earlier today:

... and now for Wednesday's Picks:

Wednesday, 10 March 2:45 EST

Manchester United vs. AC Milan (3-2 After 1st Leg): The Beckham makes his glorious return to the Theater of Dreams in this 2nd leg match up between European greats. Unfortunately for Becks and his temporary teammates, this trip away from Italy holds more value as a tourist getaway to scenic (?) Northwest England than as a sporting endeavor. Their not so fresh home showing, where they gave up three (3) away goals, all but assures that the damned United will go through to the next round. The Mancunians have been stingy at home in European play, and with Milan desperately needing to score, I could see the Rossoneri being dangerously exposed at the back and prone to counterattacks. I don't think Milan will be shut out, but I don't think they have what it takes to overcome tremendous hurdle they have set up for themselves.

Prediction: Man U 2 -1 Milan [Man U Advance on Aggregate 5-3]

Real Madrid CF vs. Olympique Lyonnais (0-1 After 1st Leg): As a desperate, anxious Madridista, I am going to stray from my typical dispassionate analysis for a moment. Enjoy my sadness... Madrid need to get a firm grasp of the two ways that this game can go: they can either play very conservatively, go for a straightforward 2-0 result that would get them through OR they could go balls-to-the-wall and try to score as many goals as possible, defense be damned. Given that they allow one goal on average at home in Europe, going for the first result seems Quixotic (how apropos for a Spanish Squadroon!). As they demonstrated with their play in the latter half of the Sevilla game this weekend, when they are going all out on offense, the Blancos' play can be quite sublime. I think they need to channel that spirit and style for the entire 90 minutes, with the Bernabeu faithful cheering them on, urging them forward in all-out attack. Anything short of that effort will lead to a 6th straight failure in the Round of 16. Count it. In that spirit, I have cooked up two predictions: one likely and one ideal. The likely one assumes a conservative approach from Pellegrini, where he starts an all-Diarra central midfield. The ideal is one where there is maybe one holding midfielder , 4 at the back, and the rest some combination of strikers and attacking midfielders (Ronaldo, Kaka, Guti, Van Der Vaart, et al.).

Likely Scenario Prediction: Madrid 2 - 1 Lyon [Lyon Advance on Away Goals 2-2]

Ideal Scenario Prediction: Madrid 4 - 2 Lyon [Madrid Advance on Aggregate 4-3]

Enjoy the matches, folks!

and HALA MADRID!

-----

Back to the present and my immediate post-match thoughts. The following paragraph will likely take the form of a long stream of consciousness that makes little to no sense for the non-soccer fans out there.

Well, for starters I am pretty numb. This one hurts more than Arsenal in 2006, more than the embarrassment to Liverpool last year, more than the Bayern shaming in 2007. Madrid played great in the first half and should have had this one in the bag. As per my comments earlier today, though, I KNEW we were going to give up a goal. It was bound to happen. Why Pellegrini even STARTED Granero I can't understand. We were always going to need firepower, we were always going to be chasing goals. One central/holding mid in the form of Lass was going to be enough. But no, we get Granero (who was shit over the two legs of the tie), and his mistakes. Not to say that he should get all of the blame or even the majority of it. There was enough to go around. Kaka, for all of his occasional brilliance, was also reduced to flopping around at times looking for calls. Ramos was prone to giving up the ball at times, something that you just can't get away with doing as a RB who goes charging up the flank. Ronaldo showed the usual effort, although we could have seen better from his free kicks than to put one super wide and one right into the wall. Hmm, who else. Oh yes, there is Higuain. Pepita had a howler of a miss in the first half, hitting the post on a wide open net. He was absent for the rest of the game.

But what does this mean in the long term? Well obviously all attention now turns to the League, which is really all about keeping pace and beating Barca in the home leg of the Clasico. Does the team continue the domestic form that has helped them catch up to the Catalans? Its hard to say. I could easily see them losing all fight, as half the team (Kaka, Benzema, Ronaldo, Alonso, Albiol, Arbeloa, Granero) were brought on for the express purpose of winning the CL, or at least GETTING US PAST THE ROUND OF 16, FUCK (!). When you have failed epically at the sole thing you were hired to do, I can't help but feel that will negatively impact your future performances. But then again I am not a professional athlete playing at the highest levels. Maybe they will be so angered by this failure that they will romp on the comparatively puny competition in La Liga and get Number 32. Who's to say?

What I do know is that in this instance, 10 >> 32. At least for tonight, that math is ringing true in the minds of Madridistas everywhere.

yes, more soccer, but soon variety

I realize that many of my posts as of late have been very soccer-related. If that has bothered you, dear reader, I am very sorry. Also, shut up! I will write about what I feel like writing about. Assurances that I will have some variety of topics soon, though, so don't fret too much.

That being said, here is my latest soccer work: a prediction I concocted earlier in the day. Marvel at its accuracy!

Ed. note: I composed this prediction at around 2:25 PM today, long before the start of the matches...

A Fine Tuesday Tradition: The Champions League Pickkake.

Last Week (actually two weeks ago) Retrospective:

Stuttgart 1 - 1 Barcelona (picked 1-3): MISSED on O/U, MISSED on Result

Olympiacos 0 - 1 Bordeaux (picked 1-2): MISSED on O/U, HIT on Result

CSKA Moscow 1 - 1 Sevilla (picked 1-1): HIT on O/U, HIT on Result

Inter 2 - 1 Chelsea (picked 0-1): MISSED on O/U, MISSED on Result

Not too bad, but not great either. Still hovering around mediocrity, but got a direct hit with the Moscow/Sevilla clash. Very nice. On to this week's action...

Tuesday, 9 March 2:45 EST

Arsenal vs. FC Porto (1-2 After 1st Leg): As much as I enjoy Porto for their various name-related foibles (playing in the Stadium of the Dragon and having a man by the name of Hulk), I can't help but see The Arsenal going through to the next round. While they are probably still reeling from that awful leg break suffered by the promising young Ramsey, Arsenal should play tough at the Emirates and use that away goal they have stashed away to their advantage. Porto travel well in Europe, though, so it will be no easy task for the Gunners as they try to advance. I see this one going to extra time to find a winner.

Prediction: Arsenal 2 -1 Porto (AET 3-1) [Arsenal Advance on Aggregate 4-3]

AC Fiorentina vs. FC Bayern Munich (1-2 After 1st Leg): Man, if the first leg wasn't an example of some of the worst Champions League refereeing since, oh, last spring... The best thing that Fiorentina may have going for them in this match (besides their one away goal) is the fact that Bovs Bovsen will not be officiating this match. He and his suspect decisions probably cost them the 1st leg, but Bayern will not be so lucky this time around. I see Fiorentina playing with fire in their bellies in this match, in an effort to avenge the wrongs they suffered at the hands of the Boverson. Will fire and desire be enough, though? I fear that they may not be able to overcome the one goal advantage that Bayern took away from the first leg and will (unjustly) fall out of Champions League competition in this round.

Prediction: Fiorentina 1 - 1 Bayern [Bayern Advance on Aggregate 2-3]

... ack ran out of time (busy day, Part 2 of this Pickkake will feature tomorrow)