It is also a little late, considering some of my predictions have already (sadly) busted out. But tomorrow is another day!
Last week retrospective:
So with the year layoff since my last bit of soccer prognosticating, I showed off my rust with some rather dodgy results last week. I hope to improve today, but here is a look at what I hit on and what I missed from Matchdays 1/2.
AC Milan 2 - 3 Man U (picked 1-1): MISSED on O/U, MISSED on Result
Lyon 1 - 0 Real Madrid (picked 0-1): HIT on O/U, MISSED on Result
Porto 2 - 1 Arsenal (picked 1-1): MISSED on O/U, MISSED on Result
Bayern Munich 2 - 1 Fiorentina (picked 2-0): MISSED on O/U, HIT on Result
For those keeping score at home, thats a robust .250 batting average. Decent for baseball, below average for a sports book. I will try harder this week to get the results on the button. To the predicterfaaning:
Tuesday, 23 February 2:45 EST
VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Barcelona (-1) [O/U 2.5 -150 +115] - The defending European and World Club Champions (like that Ahmad? I'm giving them their DUE) begin their title defense in earnest today when they take on the upstart Stuttgart. Barca still stands astride La Liga, despite their bedshitting against Atletico and Real's efforts to play catch-up. Les Cules are justifiably worried about their team's injury woes, with a number of starters banged up as of late. Will these injuries come to haunt the Blaugrana when they go on their south German adventure? I say no, as Stuttgart have been atrocious in the back in European play, giving up 1.67 goals on average at home. While Barca have not lit the world on fire away from the Camp in Europe, I think they are due for a bit of their old form this afternoon, and will come away with a valuable away win:
Prediction: Stuttgart 1 - 3 Barcelona UPDATE: MISSED on O/U, MISSED on Result
Olympiacos CFP vs. FC Girondins de Bordeaux [O/U 2.5 -130 even] - Somehow, someway, some greasy Greek team and two French teams end up qualifying for Round of 16 play. That fact, in and of itself, is quite annoying given the quality of these leagues compared to other European powerhouses. When teams like this play EACH OTHER, that really steams my clams. Somehow seven-times champs AC Milan will not feature in the Quarterfinals, whereas one of these teams will have a spot. Blegh. Anyways, as far as predictions go, I think this matchup is pretty clear. Olympiacos made it out of their group with a rather sterling 3-1-2 record and -1 GD. They have yet to lose at home in European play, though, so I must give them credit where it is due. Bordeaux have a had a great season thusfar, in both Europe and at home, so I will give them the edge in this affair:
Prediction: Olympiacos 1 - 2 Bordeaux UPDATE: MISSED on O/U, HIT on Result
Wednesday, 24 February 12:30 and 2:45 EST
CSKA Moscow vs. Sevilla FC [O/U 2.5 +120 -155] - The Rojiblancos head out to cold Mother Russia to take on Professional Football Club Central Sports Club of Army Moscow (their actual name!) in this tie that lacks the flavor of some of the other matches in store this week. While the Sevillistas are normally quite strong on the road in Europe (2.33 GF average thusfar), I can see the chilly temperatures (projected high of 36) in Moscow getting to them tomorrow night. While I don't think they will be completely frozen out of the net tomorrow night, I don't see a goalfest happening either. CSKA seems to play much better at home, and I think they will be able to escape this tie with a draw:
Prediction: Moscow 1 - 1 Sevilla
Inter Milan vs. Chelsea FC [O/U 2.5 +135 -175] - Oh ho ho! Soccer writers the world over have had this match circled on their calendars since the day of the draw. The subplots in this tie are legion: Special One versus his old club, negative football versus negative football, perennial Champions League failures versus even more heartbreaking failures. What this match will lack in goals, I think it will more than make up for in backstory and drama. What kind of antics or mind games will the Special One cook up for this encounter? How will Chelsea players, who for the most part liked the Mourinho regime, handle playing against their old gaffer? No one is quite sure how any of this will shake out, but I am willing to say that a lot of the excitement of this matchup will happen before the starting whistle and after the final one. Inter has played rather negative football as of late, and we have all see what Chelsea's tactics can look like away from home in European play (reference Ahmad's frustration with them in last year's email chain.) Chelsea has yet to be shutout in Europe, but I think they will be frustrated in tomorrow night's encounter:
Prediction: Inter 1 - 0 Chelsea
Lots of focus on soccer. So sue me.
