10 March 2010

wednesday sadness, or pjanic (75') at the disco

I know I am making a horrible habit of posting these predictions AFTER the events take place, but I got out of work late and could only post this after being enthralled by the match:


From earlier today:
... and now for Wednesday's Picks:

Wednesday, 10 March 2:45 EST

Manchester United vs. AC Milan (3-2 After 1st Leg): The Beckham makes his glorious return to the Theater of Dreams in this 2nd leg match up between European greats. Unfortunately for Becks and his temporary teammates, this trip away from Italy holds more value as a tourist getaway to scenic (?) Northwest England than as a sporting endeavor. Their not so fresh home showing, where they gave up three (3) away goals, all but assures that the damned United will go through to the next round. The Mancunians have been stingy at home in European play, and with Milan desperately needing to score, I could see the Rossoneri being dangerously exposed at the back and prone to counterattacks. I don't think Milan will be shut out, but I don't think they have what it takes to overcome tremendous hurdle they have set up for themselves.
Prediction: Man U 2 -1 Milan [Man U Advance on Aggregate 5-3]

Real Madrid CF vs. Olympique Lyonnais (0-1 After 1st Leg): As a desperate, anxious Madridista, I am going to stray from my typical dispassionate analysis for a moment. Enjoy my sadness... Madrid need to get a firm grasp of the two ways that this game can go: they can either play very conservatively, go for a straightforward 2-0 result that would get them through OR they could go balls-to-the-wall and try to score as many goals as possible, defense be damned. Given that they allow one goal on average at home in Europe, going for the first result seems Quixotic (how apropos for a Spanish Squadroon!). As they demonstrated with their play in the latter half of the Sevilla game this weekend, when they are going all out on offense, the Blancos' play can be quite sublime. I think they need to channel that spirit and style for the entire 90 minutes, with the Bernabeu faithful cheering them on, urging them forward in all-out attack. Anything short of that effort will lead to a 6th straight failure in the Round of 16. Count it. In that spirit, I have cooked up two predictions: one likely and one ideal. The likely one assumes a conservative approach from Pellegrini, where he starts an all-Diarra central midfield. The ideal is one where there is maybe one holding midfielder , 4 at the back, and the rest some combination of strikers and attacking midfielders (Ronaldo, Kaka, Guti, Van Der Vaart, et al.).
Likely Scenario Prediction: Madrid 2 - 1 Lyon [Lyon Advance on Away Goals 2-2]
Ideal Scenario Prediction: Madrid 4 - 2 Lyon [Madrid Advance on Aggregate 4-3]

Enjoy the matches, folks!


and HALA MADRID!

-----
Back to the present and my immediate post-match thoughts. The following paragraph will likely take the form of a long stream of consciousness that makes little to no sense for the non-soccer fans out there.

Well, for starters I am pretty numb. This one hurts more than Arsenal in 2006, more than the embarrassment to Liverpool last year, more than the Bayern shaming in 2007. Madrid played great in the first half and should have had this one in the bag. As per my comments earlier today, though, I KNEW we were going to give up a goal. It was bound to happen. Why Pellegrini even STARTED Granero I can't understand. We were always going to need firepower, we were always going to be chasing goals. One central/holding mid in the form of Lass was going to be enough. But no, we get Granero (who was shit over the two legs of the tie), and his mistakes. Not to say that he should get all of the blame or even the majority of it. There was enough to go around. Kaka, for all of his occasional brilliance, was also reduced to flopping around at times looking for calls. Ramos was prone to giving up the ball at times, something that you just can't get away with doing as a RB who goes charging up the flank. Ronaldo showed the usual effort, although we could have seen better from his free kicks than to put one super wide and one right into the wall. Hmm, who else. Oh yes, there is Higuain. Pepita had a howler of a miss in the first half, hitting the post on a wide open net. He was absent for the rest of the game.

But what does this mean in the long term? Well obviously all attention now turns to the League, which is really all about keeping pace and beating Barca in the home leg of the Clasico. Does the team continue the domestic form that has helped them catch up to the Catalans? Its hard to say. I could easily see them losing all fight, as half the team (Kaka, Benzema, Ronaldo, Alonso, Albiol, Arbeloa, Granero) were brought on for the express purpose of winning the CL, or at least GETTING US PAST THE ROUND OF 16, FUCK (!). When you have failed epically at the sole thing you were hired to do, I can't help but feel that will negatively impact your future performances. But then again I am not a professional athlete playing at the highest levels. Maybe they will be so angered by this failure that they will romp on the comparatively puny competition in La Liga and get Number 32. Who's to say?

What I do know is that in this instance, 10 >> 32. At least for tonight, that math is ringing true in the minds of Madridistas everywhere.

09 March 2010

yes, more soccer, but soon variety

I realize that many of my posts as of late have been very soccer-related. If that has bothered you, dear reader, I am very sorry. Also, shut up! I will write about what I feel like writing about. Assurances that I will have some variety of topics soon, though, so don't fret too much.

That being said, here is my latest soccer work: a prediction I concocted earlier in the day. Marvel at its accuracy!

Ed. note: I composed this prediction at around 2:25 PM today, long before the start of the matches...

A Fine Tuesday Tradition: The Champions League Pickkake.

Last Week (actually two weeks ago) Retrospective:
Stuttgart 1 - 1 Barcelona (picked 1-3): MISSED on O/U, MISSED on Result
Olympiacos 0 - 1 Bordeaux (picked 1-2): MISSED on O/U, HIT on Result
CSKA Moscow 1 - 1 Sevilla (picked 1-1): HIT on O/U, HIT on Result
Inter 2 - 1 Chelsea (picked 0-1): MISSED on O/U, MISSED on Result

Not too bad, but not great either. Still hovering around mediocrity, but got a direct hit with the Moscow/Sevilla clash. Very nice. On to this week's action...

Tuesday, 9 March 2:45 EST

Arsenal vs. FC Porto (1-2 After 1st Leg): As much as I enjoy Porto for their various name-related foibles (playing in the Stadium of the Dragon and having a man by the name of Hulk), I can't help but see The Arsenal going through to the next round. While they are probably still reeling from that awful leg break suffered by the promising young Ramsey, Arsenal should play tough at the Emirates and use that away goal they have stashed away to their advantage. Porto travel well in Europe, though, so it will be no easy task for the Gunners as they try to advance. I see this one going to extra time to find a winner.
Prediction: Arsenal 2 -1 Porto (AET 3-1) [Arsenal Advance on Aggregate 4-3]

AC Fiorentina vs. FC Bayern Munich (1-2 After 1st Leg): Man, if the first leg wasn't an example of some of the worst Champions League refereeing since, oh, last spring... The best thing that Fiorentina may have going for them in this match (besides their one away goal) is the fact that Bovs Bovsen will not be officiating this match. He and his suspect decisions probably cost them the 1st leg, but Bayern will not be so lucky this time around. I see Fiorentina playing with fire in their bellies in this match, in an effort to avenge the wrongs they suffered at the hands of the Boverson. Will fire and desire be enough, though? I fear that they may not be able to overcome the one goal advantage that Bayern took away from the first leg and will (unjustly) fall out of Champions League competition in this round.
Prediction: Fiorentina 1 - 1 Bayern [Bayern Advance on Aggregate 2-3]


... ack ran out of time (busy day, Part 2 of this Pickkake will feature tomorrow)