tuesday museday round these parts

"... greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right, greed works."

- Gordon Gekko, from the motion picture Wall Street

The picture above is a screenshot of the values of the leading for-profit companies at the end of trading yesterday. Why the sudden uptick? The announcement of the coming departure of Mr. Rob Shireman, a key figure at the Department of Education who has been known for taking a hard stance against for-profit colleges, that's why. The rise in stock values was Wall Street's collective boner at the fact that these companies could face less stringent regulation after July 1 (and thus could be much more profitable). Hmm. For-profit, for whom exactly?

Not the students, IMO. Of all the stakeholders involved in the business of for-profit colleges: the students, the federal government, the shareholders of the for-profits, the management, the "admissions counselors" and so on, the students are probably lowest on the totem poll. They bear all of the risk involved in the process: the tremendous cost of the loans, the opportunity cost of time spent in classes, and the chance that they will not even succeed in getting the degree they are seeking. For the for-profits (FPs), the risk is minimal. As long as they can get a butt in each seat in the classroom, they can keep the loan money flowing in and their investors happy. They are completely divorced from the outcomes of their students. Whether students fail or succeed is really of minimal concern to the FP, even if a student comes out with a terrible experience, loads of debt, and is super vocal about their tribulations, these companies have tremendous advertising budgets that will allow to them to drown out the voices of dissent with their siren song of "get this degree, make more money, have a better life."

For this reason, I think the FP model of education is simply untenable. The best interests of the students and the companies that run these schools are almost in complete opposition. The students are in need of a relevant and useful educational experience that can be parlayed into a better job and more opportunities. The company is best served by increasing enrollments and delivering this "education" at the greatest margin of profit. Because there is only so much money that these students could likely pay in a year (based on income and loans), these companies have to cut back on overhead. This profit maximization takes place in the form of more online classes of dubious rigor and value and more "vocational experiences" where a nursing clinical is actually a trip to a daycare (I cannot make this up, watch the Frontline piece mentioned in my previous post). The very essence of their business model depends on educating as many students as cheaply as possible.

Traditional non-profit schools, in a sense, operate in a much more "market-oriented" fashion: if they are truly good at educating their students, putting them in the best possible position to succeed, they should be able to solicit donations from grateful alumni and build a nice endowment. With said endowment (and yes, this is EGREGIOUS simplification here, but bear with me), they can build nicer facilities, hire better professors. and offer better financial aid packages to needy students. All of these benefits are cyclical in that they go back to the next generation of students, who then repeat the process. Hmm... a company (college/university) makes a good product (an education), its customers (students) go out and make money/gain prominence/promote product, and the company is able to expand and improve operations with more investment (alumni/corporate/foundational support). SEEMS PRETTY CAPITALIST TO ME. Somewhere Adam Smith is reaching for a Kleenex. The difference between this setup and the FP model is that the students, college, and the pursuit of knowledge benefit in this model, where as the shareholders reap most of the benefit with FPs.

Proponents of FPs say that they are simply catering to the "market" for education, that they fill a much-needed niche in the education sector. In some cases that may be true. By and large, these schools merely do the job that community colleges should perform: provide a vast array of vocational and transferable 1-2 year degrees. If all of the federal money currently going to line the pockets of the Barons of For-Profit Education went instead to a drastic reshaping and revitalization of our community college system to meet the dynamic needs of our workforce, it would be money much better spent.

tuesday museday

Two things, timely and of moderate levels of interest:

- Britain has a new leader today (or yesterday, technically, because the UK is in the future as it were). He looks like this:
Apparently, that getup is called a "Born to Rule" outfit or somesuch. Interesting, and very appropriately British. This Cameron guy got to be Prime Minister by forming a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. These Liberal Democrats are not at all similar to American liberal Democrats, who in Britain would belong to the Labour Party. And no, that's not a typo, they actually spell "labor" with an extra 'u' in there. Don't ask me why. In any event these Liberal Democrats are actually more in the center of the political spectrum, contrary to what their name would have you believe. I guess in America their equivalent would be the moderates from either party who get out-primaried by more wingish adversaries. I'm really not too sure, but what I can say is that this marriage is quite strange. As far as my American political sense can reckon, this maneuver would be akin to the Democratic Party, in some dystopian future where they have been marginalized towards the center by a party led by Ralph Nader's zombie corpse, helping the Republicans into power in an inconclusive Electoral College. In this horror future, the Democratic Party's consolation prize for this odd coupling would be the Vice Presidency and a promise from the Republicans to not eat all the Poors immediately. Not the best bargain! But good luck to the Brits all the same.

- Last week, Frontline debuted this special about for-profit educational institutions. I found it informative, but not entirely shocking. The overall premise: yeah these places do some really shady things. Is that a shock? No. Should it be? Only if you are extremely naive or a complete free-market hack. The simple fact is that the dynamics of higher education allow for these schools to be pretty heinous actors, with students, employers, and the taxpayer getting the shaft. I plan to have a more extensive rundown of this topic in a later post, but for now check out that vid and get your mind grapes ripened.

an ad, for america

I saw this web ad for ESPN's coverage of WC2010 and thought it was worth sharing.

It features Mandon, Timmy Howard, et al. on a boat approaching South Africa in the style of George "made of radiation" Washington crossing the Delaware. IT'S SO HIGH BROW. It works on many levels because in that instance Washington was going all out to defeat the British in a great struggle in which his army was the underdog, JUST LIKE THE USMNT.

It would be a lot more accurate, though, if England contracted out some Germans strikers to fill out their squad. Still, a class advertisement all around.

tuesday museday revival

Ha, ha ha! Not quite. Circumstances largely beyond my control have prevented me from blogging in depth (or at all, ha) as of late. This will change in the coming days, to be sure. For now, I think I will do some (lazy) linking:

- FIFA World Cup Matchball, explained!


- Hilarious Wonkette post I can relate to, featuring this site:

- 1st song + 2nd song = where my head is at these days:
the first:


the second:


- Until yesterday, I had no idea who Justin Beiber was. Literally zero clue. I think I like that I am moving well past the point of knowing about each little flash in the pan pop sensation. I will now resume smoking my pipe in my old man attire.

- Thinking about deactivating from the Facebook machine. The "privacy" settings and layout are getting rather bothersome.

- That is all for now.

back, with soccer...

Ah, the pageantry of the Semifinals of the UEFA Champions League. With only two games to follow, gone is the need to dual-monitor your matches, watch games on broadcasting delay, and (for me at least) read many, many lines before figuring out how to predict a match. Its truly the best time of the year.

But enough of my waxing poetic, on to the predicting!

Tuesday, 20 April 2:45 EDT

Internazionale Milan v. FC Barcelona [O/U 2.5 even -130] - The Special One gets a second crack at Barcelona in this year's Champions League as Inter welcome Barcelona to the San Siro Tuesday. During the group stage, Inter drew 0-0 at home despite being dominated statistically by Barca. Will it happen again? I am not so sure this time around, as these teams are not the same ones that met in the fall. Noticeably absent from the Blaugrana is Andres "lo puto crack" Iniesta, whose play in the midfield is instrumental to an efficient Barcelona side. Guardiola has been experimenting with different looks to make up for his absence, most notably bringing up Maxwell and Dani Alves into more midfield roles in the past couple of games, to mixed effect. Xavi has picked up the slack as well, as my beloved Real side can attest. And finally, how can we forget about this guy:

I really don't know what he is looking at so intently, but its kind of frightening. Maicon, the Special One, and the rest of Inter would be wise to keep their eyes on the little magician as he is easily the most dangerous player in the multiverse right now. (Even Thong Boy agrees, kind of!) Honestly, I would be shocked if Mourinho hasn't prepared his side to the utmost to deal with the Messi Problem, so his impact on the game may be somewhat muted. The real question for me is how much will Mourinho push his men to go for the aggressive strategy of attaining a home goal or play the conservative counterattack to contain Barca's offense. I see the match falling somewhere in-between:

Prediction: Inter 1-1 Barcelona

Wednesday, 21 April 2:45 EDT

FC Bayern Munich (-.5) v. Olympique Lyonnais [O/U 2.5 -110 -120] - Yes, yes we have all heard it before. Germany v. France, World War overtones, et cetera et cetera. Really though, perhaps the best and most notable thing about this match is that it will probably be recreated in Lego form by some ingenious (insane?) Germans:

If you haven't seen that yet, you really, really have to watch. The Robben moneyshot is incredible. Anyways, I think this should be a rather compelling tie. I have hated on both of these teams in the past, predicting the downfall of Bayern at various stages and underestimating Lyon's ability to get by Bordeaux. As John has pointed out to me (in a bit of pro-German bias I think? What propaganda has Eisbar been feeding you?), Bayern score with great aplomb. The facts actually bare this out; Bayern have a fat +24 GD in games at home in the Bundesliga. They are also the 4th highest scoring team this year's CL. Lyon have been nothing if not plucky in defense, though. Through the competition, they have been able to frustrate the competent offenses of Madrid and Bordeaux. How will strength play against strength at the Fussball Arena Munchen? I will look for Bayern to come away with the win in a close and exciting match:

Prediction: Bayern 2-1 Lyon

And what would be a matchday featuring Inter be without a Special guest appearance?

"Shut up, Messi!"

oh, and its a soccer thing

Alright, I managed to go one post without talking about soccer in some form or fashion, but I just HAD to comment on this article I came across in the New Republic today.

'Galacticos' In Hell - Aleksandar Hemon

Here is a picture of the guy, just to give you a mental image of the man I will proceed to rant against:

Oh Hi, I am Alek. I am supposes to know about the soccer. Check out my glasses.

So in case you are backtracking, the The New Republic (double the's intentional) is, in fact, having a guy (that guy, up there) cover soccer from here to and through the World Cup. Soccer coverage? From a news and politics magazine? You've got me. But really, why not? More soccer coverage in America can't be a bad thing, right?

As it turns out, the answer is plainly 'yes.' Yes, it can be a bad thing to have more coverage of soccer if that coverage is crazy terrible. Like this guy's was. There are a LOT of people in this country (and outside of it, for that matter) who could do a vastly better job covering the beautiful game for the American audience. Why is this guy so terrible? Where to begin...

... I guess the biggest thing for me was the fact that he really doesn't seem to have all that deep on an understanding of the game. In the paragraph where he mentions Liverpool's financial trouble, he initially called world-renown striker Fernando Torres "Francisco Torres." (The mistake was edited later in the day.) I don't mean to be a soccer snob, but anyone actually following the game (instead of just looking up facts to write an article) would NOT make that mistake. I'm sorry, a simple mistake like that subverts any claim to be knowledgeable about anything regarding the game in Europe.

But on to the substance of the argument. I guess his main idea is that Real are pretty foolish in their attempt to win European glory through the second go-round of the galacticos policy. In that main respect, he may be right. This commentary is far (and I mean fucking Pluto-distant) from insightful and hardly worth a column in the The New Republic. About a million bloggers, commentators, soccer personalities, et al. have made this exact same observation. It doesn't take a soccer genius to note "hey, maybe buying great players isn't the best policy for winning the CL." Barcelona proved just that last year. And everyone noticed. Last year. Way to be on top of your game, guy! A mere 10 months late to that party!

But this common line of attack against the galacticos policy is not without its faults as well. Many seem to forget that under the first Perez regime, Madrid were quite successful, winning two Champions League crowns (2000 and 2002) and two Ligas (2001 and 2003). They only stopped succeeding when Perez sacked manager Vicente del Bosque, the current gaffer of the Spanish national team. Back in those halcyon days under del Bosque, Madrid's policy of signing the greatest players was hailed as masterstroke, and they were truly a delight to watch. While the current generation of superstars may not play together as well (bearing in mind they have only been at it for less than a season), no one can rightly claim that they are doomed to fail in future efforts. This is a team built for the future (many of the stars are under the age of 28), not for immediate results on the field.

Hemon also seems to lack an understanding of relative player quality. He lists Arbeloa and Garay as cut-rate defenders, while both of them have been capped for their respective national sides - Arbeloa generally figuring as a starter or substitute as of late. He claims that Guti is a "divinity among Madridistas for his fanatical club loyalty and meticulous hair care"... I really don't even know where to begin with that one. The general consensus among Madrid fans is that Guti is a player to be tolerated more then celebrated at this point, as he has both tremendous upside (sublime passes) and disastrous downside (disappears from games, bad attitude). "Fanatical club loyalty" in reference to Guti is probably the richest statement in this entire piece, which is otherwise riddled with bold statements; Guti has on many occasions expressed his desire to leave the club or shared his displeasure with his current amount of playing time. I think Hemon makes the dangerous error of conflating time of service with club (no one would deny that Guti has been with Real for ages) with loyalty to said club. Guti is no Raul, for example.

In the final analysis, this guy is pretty far off base when it comes to backing up his very bland "analysis." The fact that TNR picked this guy to give its American readers in-depth soccer coverage through the Mundial is quite disappointing.

/endrant

//really, what is up with those glasses?

hey, a non soccer thing!

Yes! Finally a non-soccer related thing, for Once! All it took was a monumental piece of legislation to pass the do-nothing Congress, which finally did something.

America, welcome to the civilized world! Yes, you now (or at least close to almost) provide some sensible way for (most?) of your citizens to access affordable healthcare. Suck it second/third world!

But lets not get ahead of ourselves, this bill is certainly a camel. And no, not this colorful character:

But rather a camel in the sense that it was designed by committee, literally made of compromises that in aggregate make something that none of the people who had a hand in the creation are 100% happy with. I mean look at a camel, seriously, those things are bizarre.

Anyways, its a step in the right direction, even if its far from perfect. Other outlets could surely to a much better job of getting into the wonkery of the matter, so I will leave that out of this post. What I will include is my conversation tonight with someone who was displeased with the reform, and how her view is illustrative of how the Dems and President Obama need to continue to sell this here camel as the November elections grow closer:

D*: well, then that doesn't upset me. lol. it's not fair, i know. hell, i have two health insurance and until about 3 months ago, i had three. i shouldn't have 3 when others have none, but i shouldn't have to pay for yours

9:32 PM me: well, the merits of the healthcare part of the reconcilliation thing yesterday aside

the part that was SAFRA

was laudable

9:33 PM I will not debate the hcr part with you, but I do suggest you read carefully up on what it does and does not do

9:34 PM I don't suspect you will be paying much more in taxes

for whatever was done

unless you have some windfalls

that I am not aware of

D*: it's not so much about cost to me as it is principle. it's not the govt's responsibility to take care of people.

9:35 PM me: I understand and respect your view

and to a large extent agree

but "take care of people" is a pretty broad umbrella phrase

9:37 PM gotta take care of people, by you know, fighting wars against enemies

who would like to do harm to us

and take care of people by making sure companies don't sell shit products that could kill or hurt lots of people

9:38 PM but I think I understand what you are talking about

9:40 PM D*: im not very eloquent when i try to say what i mean. and yes i agree with you. someone has to check things. but in my head, we're giving things away. lots and lots and lots of just "giving" away. are the ins co corrupt? probably. because of bureaucracy, are the costs inflated? probably. i dont know the right answer, but i dont think this is it

9:42 PM me: it may very well not be the best answer

but its an answer

an answer that has not come in literally 90 years

D*: is a shitty answer better than none?

9:43 PM me: if you before could not afford insurance

and now can

or

because you were born with an expensive to treat condition

are now allowed to get insurance

I would imagine it is

9:44 PM as a relatively healthy person

who makes good decisions

with health

I can't say that it really does a lot for me

D*: dont even start me on 90 years ago. i dont have enough time tonight. lol i see your point in both examples. however, my fear is that this is going to become a runaway program similar to what happened almost 80 years ago. i honestly believe it's worse for you, brendan

9:45 PM me: but for someone who has a really sick kid and now insurance companies can't reject their child because they are too expensive to treat

well

yes

9:46 PM I understand if you don't have time to go into it now, and really I don't want to try to convince you of anything

but I do suggest you read about what was passed, just to make sure

that you are sure

that things are being given away

9:48 PM D*: i meant i don't have time to discuss 90 years of healthcare fiascos. but, i must retire anyway, but i will promise to review the bill and what it includes. i won't lie. i rely on glenn beck for a lot. i'm just highly skeptical. i do suppose i'm in a happy hc bubble and i dont see the outside. but i dont like change. i dont like govt telling me what to do or spending my money on things that arent about me. but i will mull this over. and we will discuss soon.

9:49 PM me: definitely

and

please

whatever you do

and whatever you believe

9:50 PM please find someone else to get info from other than glenn beck

Okay, you might be thinking that the Glenn Beck thing makes the whole conversation a moot point. I would caution that my friend is not a crazy wingnut in any sense. My friend represents a few commonly held views, namely that there are huge giveaways in this bill and that the ability to get affordable insurance may not be all that essential.

The challenge for Dems will be to highlight the immediate and long term benefits of the bill, while also providing evidence that those above points are the wrong way to think about HCR.

Also, SAFRA. Yay!

last soccer post for a bit, I swear

This week's edition of the Pickakke is sponsored by the Special One:

"Be Champions"

Speaking of champions, lets do a quick review of last week's selections:

Man U 4 - 0 AC Milan (picked 2-1): HIT on O/U, HIT on Result

Madrid 1 - 1 Lyon (picked 2-1): MISSED on O/U, HIT on Result

Arsenal 5 - 0 Porto (picked 3-1): HIT on O/U, HIT on Result

Fiorentina 3 - 2 Bayern (picked 2-0): MISSED on O/U, HIT on Result

For those of you keeping score at home, that's a 75% rate of success. Very, very nice predicting.

But we can't afford to live in the past, resting upon our laurels (ahem Madrid ahem). Onward to this week's tasty treats:

Tuesday, 16 March 3:45 EDT

Chelsea FC (-1) vs. Internazionale (1-2 after 1st leg): The Special One returns to Stamford Bridge, where he amassed an impressive record as manager of Chelsea. Will his 2-1 lead be enough to see Inter through? Chelsea have had strong form at home in Europe and in the Prem, while Inter have been less than convincing away from the San Siro. Does it all add up to Chelsea victory, then? I am not so certain. Maybe its the special scarf, or just his way with words, but somehow I am believing in the Special One this time around in his former playpen. I see Chelsea getting an early goal, getting too comfortable sitting on their away goal advancement, and getting "puto cracked" by an Inter-man at the death.

Prediction: Chelsea 1 - 1 Inter [Inter advance on aggregate 2-3]

Sevilla FC (-1) vs. CSKA Moscow (1-1 after 1st leg): Sevilla have to be considered favorites to advance after their gutsy performance in cold Mother Russia to pull out the 1-1 draw. They have also been in-form at the Sanchez-Pizjuan as of late, going undefeated in their last 5 matches with a GD of +7. I really see no way for Moscow to outduel the nerviosos at home, and even if they manage an unlikely away goal, I see Sevilla countering comfortably.

Prediction: Sevilla 2 - 0 Moscow [Sevilla advance on aggregate 3-1]

Wednesday, 17 March 3:45 EDT

FC Barcelona (-1.5) vs. VfB Stuttgart (1-1 after 1st leg): Waawee whoa whoa. After Barcelona's impressive thrashing of Valencia yesterday, they are installed in this match as MEGAFAVORITES. The over/under for this match is set at 3, instead of the customary 2.5 AND Barca is pegged as a winner by more than a goal. If you needed any more proof of how no one gives Stuttgart a snowball's chance in hell at the Camp Nou, if you bet 100 dollars on them winning, you could be 1100 dollars richer at the end of the match. A more than 10x return on investment! Not too shabby. I am not advocating making that investment, though. Messi was sublime yesterday, and I fully expect he and his Barca Boys to work over Stuttgart in this match as well. I can see them getting a lucky goal somewhere in there, so I will through Stuttgart a bone with this one:

Prediction: Barca 3 - 1 Stuttgart [Barca advance on aggregate 4-2]

FC Girondins de Bordeaux (-1) vs. Olympiacos CFP (1-0 after 1st leg): Hmm, because I think so highly of the ol' Geronimos, I will keep this one short and sweet. Olympiacos have not scored an away goal in Europe this year. Bordeaux are CLASS. As such:

Prediction: Bordeaux 1 - 0 Olympiacos [Bordeaux advance on aggregate 2-0]

---

Just a friendly Daylight SAVING Time reminder: because we set our clocks ahead before our friends in Europe, this week's matches are at quarter to FOUR, not three as per usual. Didn't have enough DST chatter today so I figured I would throw that one in.

And remember, Be Champions!

wednesday sadness, or pjanic (75') at the disco

I know I am making a horrible habit of posting these predictions AFTER the events take place, but I got out of work late and could only post this after being enthralled by the match:

From earlier today:

... and now for Wednesday's Picks:

Wednesday, 10 March 2:45 EST

Manchester United vs. AC Milan (3-2 After 1st Leg): The Beckham makes his glorious return to the Theater of Dreams in this 2nd leg match up between European greats. Unfortunately for Becks and his temporary teammates, this trip away from Italy holds more value as a tourist getaway to scenic (?) Northwest England than as a sporting endeavor. Their not so fresh home showing, where they gave up three (3) away goals, all but assures that the damned United will go through to the next round. The Mancunians have been stingy at home in European play, and with Milan desperately needing to score, I could see the Rossoneri being dangerously exposed at the back and prone to counterattacks. I don't think Milan will be shut out, but I don't think they have what it takes to overcome tremendous hurdle they have set up for themselves.

Prediction: Man U 2 -1 Milan [Man U Advance on Aggregate 5-3]

Real Madrid CF vs. Olympique Lyonnais (0-1 After 1st Leg): As a desperate, anxious Madridista, I am going to stray from my typical dispassionate analysis for a moment. Enjoy my sadness... Madrid need to get a firm grasp of the two ways that this game can go: they can either play very conservatively, go for a straightforward 2-0 result that would get them through OR they could go balls-to-the-wall and try to score as many goals as possible, defense be damned. Given that they allow one goal on average at home in Europe, going for the first result seems Quixotic (how apropos for a Spanish Squadroon!). As they demonstrated with their play in the latter half of the Sevilla game this weekend, when they are going all out on offense, the Blancos' play can be quite sublime. I think they need to channel that spirit and style for the entire 90 minutes, with the Bernabeu faithful cheering them on, urging them forward in all-out attack. Anything short of that effort will lead to a 6th straight failure in the Round of 16. Count it. In that spirit, I have cooked up two predictions: one likely and one ideal. The likely one assumes a conservative approach from Pellegrini, where he starts an all-Diarra central midfield. The ideal is one where there is maybe one holding midfielder , 4 at the back, and the rest some combination of strikers and attacking midfielders (Ronaldo, Kaka, Guti, Van Der Vaart, et al.).

Likely Scenario Prediction: Madrid 2 - 1 Lyon [Lyon Advance on Away Goals 2-2]

Ideal Scenario Prediction: Madrid 4 - 2 Lyon [Madrid Advance on Aggregate 4-3]

Enjoy the matches, folks!

and HALA MADRID!

-----

Back to the present and my immediate post-match thoughts. The following paragraph will likely take the form of a long stream of consciousness that makes little to no sense for the non-soccer fans out there.

Well, for starters I am pretty numb. This one hurts more than Arsenal in 2006, more than the embarrassment to Liverpool last year, more than the Bayern shaming in 2007. Madrid played great in the first half and should have had this one in the bag. As per my comments earlier today, though, I KNEW we were going to give up a goal. It was bound to happen. Why Pellegrini even STARTED Granero I can't understand. We were always going to need firepower, we were always going to be chasing goals. One central/holding mid in the form of Lass was going to be enough. But no, we get Granero (who was shit over the two legs of the tie), and his mistakes. Not to say that he should get all of the blame or even the majority of it. There was enough to go around. Kaka, for all of his occasional brilliance, was also reduced to flopping around at times looking for calls. Ramos was prone to giving up the ball at times, something that you just can't get away with doing as a RB who goes charging up the flank. Ronaldo showed the usual effort, although we could have seen better from his free kicks than to put one super wide and one right into the wall. Hmm, who else. Oh yes, there is Higuain. Pepita had a howler of a miss in the first half, hitting the post on a wide open net. He was absent for the rest of the game.

But what does this mean in the long term? Well obviously all attention now turns to the League, which is really all about keeping pace and beating Barca in the home leg of the Clasico. Does the team continue the domestic form that has helped them catch up to the Catalans? Its hard to say. I could easily see them losing all fight, as half the team (Kaka, Benzema, Ronaldo, Alonso, Albiol, Arbeloa, Granero) were brought on for the express purpose of winning the CL, or at least GETTING US PAST THE ROUND OF 16, FUCK (!). When you have failed epically at the sole thing you were hired to do, I can't help but feel that will negatively impact your future performances. But then again I am not a professional athlete playing at the highest levels. Maybe they will be so angered by this failure that they will romp on the comparatively puny competition in La Liga and get Number 32. Who's to say?

What I do know is that in this instance, 10 >> 32. At least for tonight, that math is ringing true in the minds of Madridistas everywhere.

yes, more soccer, but soon variety

I realize that many of my posts as of late have been very soccer-related. If that has bothered you, dear reader, I am very sorry. Also, shut up! I will write about what I feel like writing about. Assurances that I will have some variety of topics soon, though, so don't fret too much.

That being said, here is my latest soccer work: a prediction I concocted earlier in the day. Marvel at its accuracy!

Ed. note: I composed this prediction at around 2:25 PM today, long before the start of the matches...

A Fine Tuesday Tradition: The Champions League Pickkake.

Last Week (actually two weeks ago) Retrospective:

Stuttgart 1 - 1 Barcelona (picked 1-3): MISSED on O/U, MISSED on Result

Olympiacos 0 - 1 Bordeaux (picked 1-2): MISSED on O/U, HIT on Result

CSKA Moscow 1 - 1 Sevilla (picked 1-1): HIT on O/U, HIT on Result

Inter 2 - 1 Chelsea (picked 0-1): MISSED on O/U, MISSED on Result

Not too bad, but not great either. Still hovering around mediocrity, but got a direct hit with the Moscow/Sevilla clash. Very nice. On to this week's action...

Tuesday, 9 March 2:45 EST

Arsenal vs. FC Porto (1-2 After 1st Leg): As much as I enjoy Porto for their various name-related foibles (playing in the Stadium of the Dragon and having a man by the name of Hulk), I can't help but see The Arsenal going through to the next round. While they are probably still reeling from that awful leg break suffered by the promising young Ramsey, Arsenal should play tough at the Emirates and use that away goal they have stashed away to their advantage. Porto travel well in Europe, though, so it will be no easy task for the Gunners as they try to advance. I see this one going to extra time to find a winner.

Prediction: Arsenal 2 -1 Porto (AET 3-1) [Arsenal Advance on Aggregate 4-3]

AC Fiorentina vs. FC Bayern Munich (1-2 After 1st Leg): Man, if the first leg wasn't an example of some of the worst Champions League refereeing since, oh, last spring... The best thing that Fiorentina may have going for them in this match (besides their one away goal) is the fact that Bovs Bovsen will not be officiating this match. He and his suspect decisions probably cost them the 1st leg, but Bayern will not be so lucky this time around. I see Fiorentina playing with fire in their bellies in this match, in an effort to avenge the wrongs they suffered at the hands of the Boverson. Will fire and desire be enough, though? I fear that they may not be able to overcome the one goal advantage that Bayern took away from the first leg and will (unjustly) fall out of Champions League competition in this round.

Prediction: Fiorentina 1 - 1 Bayern [Bayern Advance on Aggregate 2-3]

... ack ran out of time (busy day, Part 2 of this Pickkake will feature tomorrow)

100th post and a pickkake

This is the 100th post to the blog. Yay!

It is also a little late, considering some of my predictions have already (sadly) busted out. But tomorrow is another day!

Last week retrospective:

So with the year layoff since my last bit of soccer prognosticating, I showed off my rust with some rather dodgy results last week. I hope to improve today, but here is a look at what I hit on and what I missed from Matchdays 1/2.

AC Milan 2 - 3 Man U (picked 1-1): MISSED on O/U, MISSED on Result

Lyon 1 - 0 Real Madrid (picked 0-1): HIT on O/U, MISSED on Result

Porto 2 - 1 Arsenal (picked 1-1): MISSED on O/U, MISSED on Result

Bayern Munich 2 - 1 Fiorentina (picked 2-0): MISSED on O/U, HIT on Result

For those keeping score at home, thats a robust .250 batting average. Decent for baseball, below average for a sports book. I will try harder this week to get the results on the button. To the predicterfaaning:

Tuesday, 23 February 2:45 EST

VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Barcelona (-1) [O/U 2.5 -150 +115] - The defending European and World Club Champions (like that Ahmad? I'm giving them their DUE) begin their title defense in earnest today when they take on the upstart Stuttgart. Barca still stands astride La Liga, despite their bedshitting against Atletico and Real's efforts to play catch-up. Les Cules are justifiably worried about their team's injury woes, with a number of starters banged up as of late. Will these injuries come to haunt the Blaugrana when they go on their south German adventure? I say no, as Stuttgart have been atrocious in the back in European play, giving up 1.67 goals on average at home. While Barca have not lit the world on fire away from the Camp in Europe, I think they are due for a bit of their old form this afternoon, and will come away with a valuable away win:

Prediction: Stuttgart 1 - 3 Barcelona UPDATE: MISSED on O/U, MISSED on Result

Olympiacos CFP vs. FC Girondins de Bordeaux [O/U 2.5 -130 even] - Somehow, someway, some greasy Greek team and two French teams end up qualifying for Round of 16 play. That fact, in and of itself, is quite annoying given the quality of these leagues compared to other European powerhouses. When teams like this play EACH OTHER, that really steams my clams. Somehow seven-times champs AC Milan will not feature in the Quarterfinals, whereas one of these teams will have a spot. Blegh. Anyways, as far as predictions go, I think this matchup is pretty clear. Olympiacos made it out of their group with a rather sterling 3-1-2 record and -1 GD. They have yet to lose at home in European play, though, so I must give them credit where it is due. Bordeaux have a had a great season thusfar, in both Europe and at home, so I will give them the edge in this affair:

Prediction: Olympiacos 1 - 2 Bordeaux UPDATE: MISSED on O/U, HIT on Result

Wednesday, 24 February 12:30 and 2:45 EST

CSKA Moscow vs. Sevilla FC [O/U 2.5 +120 -155] - The Rojiblancos head out to cold Mother Russia to take on Professional Football Club Central Sports Club of Army Moscow (their actual name!) in this tie that lacks the flavor of some of the other matches in store this week. While the Sevillistas are normally quite strong on the road in Europe (2.33 GF average thusfar), I can see the chilly temperatures (projected high of 36) in Moscow getting to them tomorrow night. While I don't think they will be completely frozen out of the net tomorrow night, I don't see a goalfest happening either. CSKA seems to play much better at home, and I think they will be able to escape this tie with a draw:

Prediction: Moscow 1 - 1 Sevilla

Inter Milan vs. Chelsea FC [O/U 2.5 +135 -175] - Oh ho ho! Soccer writers the world over have had this match circled on their calendars since the day of the draw. The subplots in this tie are legion: Special One versus his old club, negative football versus negative football, perennial Champions League failures versus even more heartbreaking failures. What this match will lack in goals, I think it will more than make up for in backstory and drama. What kind of antics or mind games will the Special One cook up for this encounter? How will Chelsea players, who for the most part liked the Mourinho regime, handle playing against their old gaffer? No one is quite sure how any of this will shake out, but I am willing to say that a lot of the excitement of this matchup will happen before the starting whistle and after the final one. Inter has played rather negative football as of late, and we have all see what Chelsea's tactics can look like away from home in European play (reference Ahmad's frustration with them in last year's email chain.) Chelsea has yet to be shutout in Europe, but I think they will be frustrated in tomorrow night's encounter:

Prediction: Inter 1 - 0 Chelsea

Lots of focus on soccer. So sue me.

you betta ask somebodayyyyyy

Sven Kramer: if you don't know who he is...

... YOU BETTA ASK SOMEBODAYYYY

... just not Sven, of course.

MAKOUN (47') ME SICK

Folks, I would like to take a moment to introduce you to a serious affliction that has once again reared its ugly head and affected the lives of so many with its terrible symptoms.

RMISS affects this writer and many others around the world. It is a crippling disease that can lead to chest pains, nausea, hyperventilation, compulsive shouting, and various other wellness-reducing symptoms. RMISS is a highly seasonal illness, it grows in frequency in mid-February, reaching a peak in early-March, and typically runs its course no later than early April.

Its a devastating, horrible condition, and there is no known cure.

I have RMISS. I have struggled with it for 5 years, and only now am I coming to grips with this fact.

Yesterday, I had my first Real Madrid Induced Stress Syndrome outbreak of the year. This man was the catalyst:

Makoun (left) scored an absolute wonderstrike in the 47th minute for the winning goal.

Madrid's chances in the Round of 16 took a substantial hit when they were unable to net an away goal at Lyon yesterday. They fell 1-0, leaving them in the sticky situation whereby they must score two goals at home and surrender none to win.

This disappointment, sadly, was not quite unexpected. Despite paying over $200 million in transfer fees for a return to the Galacticos method of team building, they were unable to overcome the demons of Champions League past. Madrid have failed to advance past the Round of 16 since 2004, during Galacticos I. Whether in league-winning form, as was the case in 2007 and 2008, or runner-up form, they have not been able to translate domestic strength into European power. They seem to shrivel in the limelight, causing me and other Madridistas great angst in the form of RMISS.

This particular game was disconcerting beyond its ultimate result, though. While the 1-0 result presents a hurdle to overcome in the home leg, the way that the team earned this loss was far more troubling. Kaka, Ronaldo, and Alonso - galacticos and former Champions League winners in the past - seemed to lack any sort of coherent form of attack. Alonso seemed frustrated that he could not provide the service from the defensive third to the middle third of the field while alos looking shaky in regulaing the Lyon attack. Kaka was VISIBLY frustrated with the service he was getting from the deep midfield, shouting for the ball and seeming frustrated for the majority of the game. Ronaldo looked lost at times: while he was probably giving some of his hardest effort of the season, he crippled the Madrid attack at times by attempting ball tricks that were completely inappropriate in the given situation.

But why were these otherwise clutch CL performers made to look stunningly average in yesterday's game? I think there are a few reasons. Firstly, Lyon seemed DETERMINED to not surrender an away goal. That airtight defense was a critical part of their gameplan, for they knew just like everyone watching that surrundering such a goal would deal an almost deadly blow to their chances of advancing past the Whites. Another reason for the lackluster performance could have also come from the fact that the team is still gelling togther, and being tested by a new form of play from the French side constipated their normal game flow. My most worrying reason, though, is that they collectively (6 new acquisitions started, 2 subbed, 4 total Galacticos) felt almost unbearable pressure to perform in this one game. They all know that they were brought in to replace players who could not get it done in the Champions League. To make a baseball reference, with all of these high-priced, high-profile acquisitions, Madrid started half a team of A-Rods. Until this season, A-Rod was known as a regular season performer, a post-season chump. The CL is much like the European soccer equivalent of the post season. They all individually feel a great amount of pressure, and because the nature of the game this effect can compound itself all over the field. Doing too much, forcing passes, forgetting team play all can happen when players feel that they themselves must make the difference to win the game.

Is this most recent disappointment a ringing repudiation of the Galacticos policy? Not necessarily. If Madrid can score 2 and pitch a shutout at home, which is entirely possible, this loss will have merely been a speed bump on the road to the Round of 8. Should they play well and somehow manage to not make it through, one could reasonably say that they need one more season to gel to make a good run. It will be a whole different story, though, if this assembled group cannot in several seasons time give Madrid fans a cure for RMISS. The fan base cannot stomach many more season of its pain.

THE CHAMPIONS

We are in the 3rd week of February, and we all know what that means...

... the glorious return of the CHAMPIONS LEAGUE ROUND OF 16.  Cue song.  Ah, thats the stuff.  And they say that February is the black hole of sports.  Pshaw!

Just like last year I am offering up some BOLD and BOMBASTIC predictions, which are up for everyone's scrutiny and/or potential lols.  This week we are treated to some truly grand matchups, with yet another meeting of AC Milan and Man U (where maybe we can see a repeat of something like this) and Real visiting Lyon, a team they have historically struggled with in Champions League play.  But enough with prologue and on to the picking!

Tuesday, 16 February 2:45 EST:

AC Milan vs. Manchester United [O/U 2.5 +130 -165] - In a battle of teams which were relieved of their top stars by Real over the summer, we have a rematch of what was an epic semifinal tie back in 2007.  In that last encounter, Milan put a finger in the eye of those who would claim the Premiership to have the best brand of football in Europe by thoroughly decimating Man U 5-1 on aggregate.  Milan won their home leg 3-0 back then, but don't look for them to repeat the feat this time around.  They did well in qualifying out of their tough group (beating and drawing eventual group winners Real) and are currently sitting in 3rd in Serie A.  While Man U have lost some of last season's luster, currently second to Chelsea in the Premiership and not exactly coming out smelling like roses from their easy as pie qualifying group.  I think this will be a chippy, fairly even affair, and I feel comfortable with the under in this one:

Prediction: AC Milan 1 - 1 Man U 

Olympique Lyonnais vs. Real Madrid (-.5) [O/U 2.5 even -130] - Lyon have dominated Real in the recent past in Champions League play - they were paired in the group stage in 2005/06 and 2006/07, where Lyon amassed an 8-3 aggregate score over 2 years.  Real has undergone quite a bit of a transformation since then, they aren't even the same side that was dominated by Liverpool in the Round of 16 last year.  They have started to hit their stride in La Liga, winning 4 games on the trot, and progressed with top billing out of their tricky qualifying group.  Aside from their shaky record against Lyon, history is also not on Real's side.  Progressing past the Round of 16 has proved to be mission impossible for Real, having failed to do so since 2004.  Lyon will prove to be a formidable foe in this first leg, but I feel that they will be overmatched in this encounter:

Prediction: Lyon 0 - 1 Real Madrid 

Wednesday, 17 February 2:45 EST:

FC Bayern Munich (-1) vs. AC Fiorentina [O/U 2.5 -130 even] - Bayern appear to be favorites in what should actually be a pretty tasty matchup on Wednesday.  Despite being runners-up in their group, Bayern will likely play strong at home, where they have amassed an 8-4-0 record with an average of 2.08 goals per game.  Fiorentina put together a rather impressive qualifying campaign, where they had a +9 goal differential and and a 5-0-1 record in a group that included quality sides Lyon and Liverpool.  Fiorentina's domestic record has been less than stellar; they currently sit in 11th position, where they are just as close to Serie B as they are to a Europa League place.  So the question for the Gigliati is, which team will show this week under the bright lights of European competition?  I think the match will be closely fought, but I see Munich coming out on top with a comfortable lead going into the second leg:

Prediction: Bayern 2 - 0 Fiorentina

FC Porto vs. Arsenal [O/U 2.5 +125 -160] - The Gunners head into this encounter as slight favorites, which is fitting given their rather indifferent European campaign to this point.  They qualified with top billing in their group, a dubious achievement given that the group included the likes of Standard Liege and AZ Alkmaar.  Their away record in the group stage also gives me pause, as they have conceded as many goals as they have scored on the road (4).  They are clearly more comfortable at the Emirates, so this away match could prove difficult for them.  Two-time European Champions Porto should give Arsenal all they can handle.  While they currently sit at 3rd in Portugal, they have had a good run of form in Europe of late, giving eventual finalists Man U a run for their money last year and managing a +5 goal difference in the group stage this year.  I see them playing this one tight at the Dragao, leaving all to play for in the second leg:

Prediction: FC Porto 1 - 0 Arsenal

Looking forward to the start of the best tournament held in February/March/April in the WORLD (sorry college bball fans).

Also, how exciting is it that the final will be held on a SATURDAY on NETWORK TV? Watch out Super Bowl, the Champions League is ready to zap ya!!!

weekend whimsy, pontification with pictures!

When I last posted, I mused about the coming snowpocalypse that was about the descend on Virginia. Due to the massive amount of snow that eventually came, in two parts no less, I found myself without the right schedule to maintain blogitude. Consider this a Tuesday Museday on a snow induced two-hour delay of sorts.

Being snowed in for a week and a half gives one lots of time for a) doing leisurely indoor things, and b) forming opinions on said leisures and other matters of the day. I will share accordingly.

SNOW DAYS out the wazoo! Six-point-five (6.5) consecutive days out from school! That is fucking wild! Not since the halcyon days of junior year of high school have we seen such an ourpouring of love from local school superintendents. While I thoroughly enjoyed the first couple off from work, towards the end of the week I was beginning to feel quite shiftless what with the hours on end of playing FIFA (more on this later) and the waking up at all hours of the later morning. When the only thing you have getting you up in the morning is the prospect of catching your favorite morning radio show, you are kind of trifling.

The picture at right is an illustration of why school was canceled for the whole week in many parts of Northern Virginia. Beyond that pink line is Arlington County. Note the clean and navigable nature of the road in the distance. Then look to the foreground. That same road is on the Fairfax County side of the line. Note how the asphalt is barely visible. Now imagine the Fairfax County road, with about an inch more of frozen water stuff and more mud, and that was the condition of the roads where I live. Localities shitting the bed all over the place in terms of road clearance. Except for Arlington, which I have long contended is one of the finest counties in the Old Dominion. All bow to the emancipated Virginia portion of the District of Columbia!

I GROK this book is a very worthwhile read. I thoroughly enjoyed Stranger in a Strange Land, a book that I had never heard of nor knew anything about before a friend recommended it to me a couple months ago. I am ashamed that I, a nerd, did not know of such an epic Sci Fi book. I could have read well beyond the 360+ pages that Heinlein provides: I eagerly devoured the book in a matter of days and at the end was left wanting more of the story. Perhaps one of the more interesting parts of the book was trying to understand the projection for the state of technology from Heinlein's 1960s perspective. Apparently newspapers are still extant in the space-traveling future, and grass is considered a premium rug. Who knew?







I GOT INTO weeds over this little impromptu winter break. While it wasn't ont hte top of my queue of must see shows (It's Always Sunny and Arrested Development, I promise to get to thee!), it was on Netflix instant streaming, so I blazed (no pun intended) through the first two seasons. While I found the show generally enjoyable, what with the milk-white attractiveness of Mary-Louise Parker (see left) and the occasional sex scene, I found myself growing tired of the predictable actions of the characters at times. Silas can be counted on to be ever the teenage douche, the little kid is unfailingly freakish, and the brother-in-law is almost too ridiculous to be believed. Another thing that annoys me is how each episode in the second season has its own version of the intro song. I am really not sure what to make of that from a stylistic aspect, since no really awesome shows that I have ever followed have done such a thing. Kevin Nolan is perfectly cast in his role, though, and somehow his ludicrous character is one of the more believable and likeable of the bunch.



NO CREDIT TO NBC's coverage of the Vancouver Games, right from the start. We aren't going to talk about the hundreds of millions that the family of networks is going to lose on the broadcast of these games, that displayed some small measure of bad judgement on the part of the bigwigs at NBC. What was truly horrid, though, was their repeated airing of the tragic luge accident that claimed the life of Georgian luger Nodar Kumaritashvili. The violent high speed crash was shown numerous times during the coverage in the lead-up to the opening ceremonies. I really don't understand their thought process in green-lighting this video for a news/sports broadcast that many families would be watching. In the scheme of terrible things that TV/Internet has brought me in the way of shocking videos, this wasn't so bad, but the fact that there were probably little kids that were tuned in makes their decision to air quite disappointing. Also, no credit to HuffPo for posting some really horrid pictures of the accident scene. Nothing like scrolling through a page to find some pics of a guy losing his life. Thanks Arianna!


FIFA FAILS ME in a major, major way. Over the break I had made quite a bit of progress in my manager mode; Zinedine Zidane had lead Madrid to it second consecutive Treble and everything seemed fine and dandy. I had big plans going into my 4th season. BIG PLANS. But these, alas, went up in smoke when I loaded up my save file to find that from the very start of sesaon 4, my team was 2.14 BILLION dollars in DEBT. I had not bought any ridiculously expensive players (rare for Madrid, I know), nor had I splashed out on any upgrades (my staff were all already at level 10). Perplexed, I turned to Google for answers. To my simultaneous comfort and dismay I found that a) I was not alone, that this is a common glitch, but b) there is no fix for this problem. Sigh. There goes 3 months of gaming out the window. Thanks EA!


DOMINO'S "NEW" PIZZA blows. The sauce is the same, the cheese hasn't changed, and the only noticable difference - the crust - is a terrible abomination. In their attempt to add flavor to their already decent recipe, the geniuses at Domino's decided to load up the crust with obscene amounts of garlic. While there is a good amount of taste added, makes the pizza super-rich, and thus each small sized piece becomes kind of like superdense pizza matter in your stomach. Not pleasant. The load of garlic also makes the boxes something akin to radioactively smelly, in that they cannot be kept in a closed space unless one wants to create a vampire-proof panic room. Please go back to unoffensive, normal-flavored filler pizza, Domino's. Please and thank you!

Alright, there are more Events to be watched tonight, enough with this bloggery for the evening. Back later with some movie thoughts.