THE CHAMPIONS

We are in the 3rd week of February, and we all know what that means...

... the glorious return of the CHAMPIONS LEAGUE ROUND OF 16.  Cue song.  Ah, thats the stuff.  And they say that February is the black hole of sports.  Pshaw!

Just like last year I am offering up some BOLD and BOMBASTIC predictions, which are up for everyone's scrutiny and/or potential lols.  This week we are treated to some truly grand matchups, with yet another meeting of AC Milan and Man U (where maybe we can see a repeat of something like this) and Real visiting Lyon, a team they have historically struggled with in Champions League play.  But enough with prologue and on to the picking!

Tuesday, 16 February 2:45 EST:

AC Milan vs. Manchester United [O/U 2.5 +130 -165] - In a battle of teams which were relieved of their top stars by Real over the summer, we have a rematch of what was an epic semifinal tie back in 2007.  In that last encounter, Milan put a finger in the eye of those who would claim the Premiership to have the best brand of football in Europe by thoroughly decimating Man U 5-1 on aggregate.  Milan won their home leg 3-0 back then, but don't look for them to repeat the feat this time around.  They did well in qualifying out of their tough group (beating and drawing eventual group winners Real) and are currently sitting in 3rd in Serie A.  While Man U have lost some of last season's luster, currently second to Chelsea in the Premiership and not exactly coming out smelling like roses from their easy as pie qualifying group.  I think this will be a chippy, fairly even affair, and I feel comfortable with the under in this one:

Prediction: AC Milan 1 - 1 Man U 

Olympique Lyonnais vs. Real Madrid (-.5) [O/U 2.5 even -130] - Lyon have dominated Real in the recent past in Champions League play - they were paired in the group stage in 2005/06 and 2006/07, where Lyon amassed an 8-3 aggregate score over 2 years.  Real has undergone quite a bit of a transformation since then, they aren't even the same side that was dominated by Liverpool in the Round of 16 last year.  They have started to hit their stride in La Liga, winning 4 games on the trot, and progressed with top billing out of their tricky qualifying group.  Aside from their shaky record against Lyon, history is also not on Real's side.  Progressing past the Round of 16 has proved to be mission impossible for Real, having failed to do so since 2004.  Lyon will prove to be a formidable foe in this first leg, but I feel that they will be overmatched in this encounter:

Prediction: Lyon 0 - 1 Real Madrid 

Wednesday, 17 February 2:45 EST:

FC Bayern Munich (-1) vs. AC Fiorentina [O/U 2.5 -130 even] - Bayern appear to be favorites in what should actually be a pretty tasty matchup on Wednesday.  Despite being runners-up in their group, Bayern will likely play strong at home, where they have amassed an 8-4-0 record with an average of 2.08 goals per game.  Fiorentina put together a rather impressive qualifying campaign, where they had a +9 goal differential and and a 5-0-1 record in a group that included quality sides Lyon and Liverpool.  Fiorentina's domestic record has been less than stellar; they currently sit in 11th position, where they are just as close to Serie B as they are to a Europa League place.  So the question for the Gigliati is, which team will show this week under the bright lights of European competition?  I think the match will be closely fought, but I see Munich coming out on top with a comfortable lead going into the second leg:

Prediction: Bayern 2 - 0 Fiorentina

FC Porto vs. Arsenal [O/U 2.5 +125 -160] - The Gunners head into this encounter as slight favorites, which is fitting given their rather indifferent European campaign to this point.  They qualified with top billing in their group, a dubious achievement given that the group included the likes of Standard Liege and AZ Alkmaar.  Their away record in the group stage also gives me pause, as they have conceded as many goals as they have scored on the road (4).  They are clearly more comfortable at the Emirates, so this away match could prove difficult for them.  Two-time European Champions Porto should give Arsenal all they can handle.  While they currently sit at 3rd in Portugal, they have had a good run of form in Europe of late, giving eventual finalists Man U a run for their money last year and managing a +5 goal difference in the group stage this year.  I see them playing this one tight at the Dragao, leaving all to play for in the second leg:

Prediction: FC Porto 1 - 0 Arsenal

Looking forward to the start of the best tournament held in February/March/April in the WORLD (sorry college bball fans).

Also, how exciting is it that the final will be held on a SATURDAY on NETWORK TV? Watch out Super Bowl, the Champions League is ready to zap ya!!!